Gavin Baker on Orbital Compute, TSMC, and Frontier Models

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  May 20, 2026 at 12:00  |  1:22:11  |  ILTB Podcast
Speakers
GavinSBaker — Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management

Summary

Gavin Baker discusses the unprecedented AI demand, infrastructure constraints (watts and wafers), and investment opportunities in semiconductors like Nvidia, DRAM, and Astera Labs. He also recommends overweighting cybersecurity and highlights TSMC's capacity decisions as a key bubble indicator.

  • Anthropic's growth is described as the most extraordinary moment in capitalist history.
  • Watts and wafers are identified as the critical constraints in the AI buildout.
  • Nvidia, DRAM, and Astera Labs are highlighted as attractive investments due to valuation and thematic positioning.
  • Cybersecurity is recommended as an overweight sector to prepare for AI-driven threats.
  • TSMC's capacity decisions are the most important variable to monitor for a potential AI bubble.
  • Returns to frontier model tokens remain surprisingly high, supporting infrastructure demand.
  • Orbital compute from SpaceX is a long-term solution for power shortages but not currently investable.
  • Geopolitical and personal safety risks from AI rise are discussed.
Trade Ideas
GavinSBaker Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management 27:10
Watch TSMC capacity for bubble indicator
TSMC's capacity expansion pace is the single most important indicator to watch for a potential AI bubble; their discipline prevents overbuild and supports the sustainability of the AI buildout.
TSM HIGH
GavinSBaker Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management 61:37
Overinvest in cybersecurity for AI threats
As AI enables more sophisticated impersonation and cyber attacks, investors should over-weight cybersecurity to protect against these threats; the speaker is actively overinvesting in the space.
CIBR MED
GavinSBaker Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management 65:46
Nvidia is cheap relative to market
Nvidia's valuation is very cheap on both absolute and relative basis compared to the market over the last decade, despite being the key beneficiary of the most extraordinary AI demand in history; the company's fundamentals are strong and it is likely to compound for a long time.
NVDA HIGH
GavinSBaker Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management 65:46
DRAM companies are deeply undervalued
DRAM companies trade at mid-single-digit earnings multiples while semicap equipment trades at 40x, an unsustainable gap; DRAM demand is structurally boosted by AI, especially HBM, which will improve memory business models, and the shortage dynamics should drive earnings and multiple expansion.
DRAM HIGH
GavinSBaker Portfolio Manager, Treaties Management 66:26
Astera is miscategorized, undervalued switch company
Astera Labs is miscategorized as a copper loser when it is actually a switch company that benefits from both copper and optics connectivity; the stock has many bears but is well-positioned in the AI infrastructure buildout with a long-term track record.
ALAB HIGH
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This ILTB Podcast video, published May 20, 2026, features GavinSBaker discussing TSM, CIBR, NVDA, DRAM, ALAB. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: GavinSBaker  · Tickers: TSM, CIBR, NVDA, DRAM, ALAB