Citi's Rob Sockin: While still high, inflation is coming in better than we would have expected

Summary

Citi senior global economist Rob Sockin joins Closing Bell Overtime to discuss the latest U.S. inflation data. He says inflation remains above target but is gradually improving and could be near 2% by the end of 2026, despite data collection distortions from the government shutdown. Sockin expects U.S. GDP growth around 2% in 2025 and 2026, supported by fiscal/tax relief and a resilient consumer, while the labor market continues to soften modestly without a recessionary rise in unemployment.

• Rob Sockin reviews the latest U.S. inflation data.
• Inflation remains above target but is trending down toward roughly 2% by end-2026.
• He notes data distortions from the government shutdown.
• Citi expects U.S. GDP growth around 2% in 2025 and 2026.
• Fiscal support and tax relief may boost midyear growth.
• Upper-income consumers remain a key support for the economy.
• The labor market is softening with a modest unemployment rise, not recessionary levels.
• Low churn and limited layoffs reduce the risk of a sharp unemployment increase.