The stocks to focus on now are actually the ones that have fallen less | Chesley Investment Advisory Executive Director Park Se-ik

Summary

Park Se-ik discusses September seasonality for Korean equities and argues investors should focus on stocks showing relative strength rather than buying early weakness. He also expects USD/KRW to fall further by 40-50 won due to dollar supply and government policy, creating FX risk for short-term US stock investors. Finally, he flags Nvidia and AI ecosystem earnings guidance as the key thing to monitor.

• September is historically weak for Korean equities with occasional large down moves.
• Relative-strength stocks that rise in the weak market are expected to lead in the next bull phase.
• USD/KRW has fallen despite domestic market weakness due to ADR issuance and shareholder return dollar supply.
• Government policy in both Korea and the US supports a lower USD/KRW exchange rate.
• Short-term US stock investors face currency risk from further won strength.
• Nvidia's fiscal 2028 guidance lifted Nvidia and Korean memory semiconductor stocks.
• AI ecosystem companies' ability to beat consensus and guide strongly remains a key monitor point.