Don't get excited about Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix share buybacks... It's not a major bull market yet... The real time to bet is 'now' | CEO Jang Woojin
Speakers
Jang Woo-jin
— Writer
Summary
CEO Jang Woo-jin argues that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix buybacks are not yet confirmation of a major bull market. He sees SK hynix's buyback-and-cancel policy as structurally stronger long-term while Samsung remains constrained by financial-industrial separation rules. He flags finite buyback support, persistent foreign selling, elevated diesel-led inflation pressure, and temporary US Treasury intervention, and advises holding significant cash until AI capex and broader conditions improve.
- Samsung Electronics has limited capacity for share cancellation because Samsung Life and Samsung Fire cannot exceed the 10% financial-industrial separation limit.
- SK hynix's buyback and cancellation policy is viewed as more shareholder-friendly and could reduce shares by 20-25% over three to four years.
- Buyback support is finite and is currently providing liquidity that foreign sellers are using to reduce positions.
- The Korean market is not yet in a confirmed bull trend because Fed liquidity is constrained by inflation and foreign selling persists.
- Diesel, heating oil, and crack spreads are tight because of refinery damage and seasonal restocking demand, keeping inflation risk elevated.
- The US Treasury's TGA long-bond buying is a temporary warning against speculative short sellers, not a fundamental fix for high long-term yields.
- The speaker recommends holding at least 30% cash, and more for downside-sensitive investors, until AI capex and rate conditions clearly improve.
Ideas
Korean market lacks liquidity for bull trend.
The Korean market is not yet in a major bull trend because liquidity can only ease if inflation falls and the Federal Reserve can act; currently inflation is not under control, so the Fed is constrained. In addition, foreign investors are still selling and individual investor reserve funds have fallen, making index-level upside difficult. He recommends reducing exposure and remaining cautious rather than treating the recent rebound as a trend reversal.
Prefer SK hynix on buyback/cancellation over Samsung.
SK hynix can pair its buyback with share cancellations, cutting share count by about 5-6% a year and 20-25% over three to four years, which he estimates could lift the stock about 30%; the cancellation policy also protects SK Square's 20% holding. Samsung Electronics, by contrast, cannot easily cancel shares because cancellation would push Samsung Life and Samsung Fire above the 10% ownership limit under financial-industrial separation rules, so Samsung remains dividend-focused. Therefore, over a multiyear horizon, SK hynix is the structurally better shareholder-return story.
Prefer SK hynix on buyback/cancellation over Samsung.
SK hynix can pair its buyback with share cancellations, cutting share count by about 5-6% a year and 20-25% over three to four years, which he estimates could lift the stock about 30%; the cancellation policy also protects SK Square's 20% holding. Samsung Electronics, by contrast, cannot easily cancel shares because cancellation would push Samsung Life and Samsung Fire above the 10% ownership limit under financial-industrial separation rules, so Samsung remains dividend-focused. Therefore, over a multiyear horizon, SK hynix is the structurally better shareholder-return story.
Treasury TGA backstop temporary; watch long bonds.
US Treasury Secretary Bessent's use of the TGA to buy long-term Treasuries is a warning that can hurt leveraged speculative short sellers and limit bond yield spikes, but it is ultimately a temporary stopgap. Long-term yields have already risen to their highest since 2007, and real alleviation of bond market concerns requires de-escalation of the war and reduced fiscal/monetary uncertainty. Long-duration Treasuries are therefore a watch item rather than a clean buy.
Diesel and crack spreads stay elevated.
Diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil are tight because Middle East and Russian refinery damage removed middle-distillate supply, while US crude production is heavier in light-end fuels. With September-to-November heating restocking demand approaching, diesel prices and crack spreads can stay elevated or rise even if crude oil stabilizes. That keeps inflation pressure alive and limits how dovish central banks can be.
Wait for AI capex improvement before betting.
AI capex is a key swing factor. If AI-related capex clearly improves and rates fall in a better market environment, then it will not be too late to bet aggressively with leverage. Until that confirmation appears, the risk of AI capex slowdown hitting GDP and causing a marketwide drawdown remains unresolved, so he treats the AI semiconductor capex complex as a wait-and-watch setup.
Hold 30% plus cash until confirmation.
Because volatility is high and the market is not yet confirmed as a bull trend, he advises keeping at least 30% cash, and for investors more afraid of downside, half or more in cash. The cash is meant to be deployed aggressively only after confirmation such as clear improvement in AI capex and lower rates. This reduces the risk of being caught in a sudden recession or credit shock.
Up Next
This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published August 27, 2026, features Jang Woo-jin discussing EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TLT, DIESEL, Diesel crack spread, SMH, CASH. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Jang Woo-jin · Tickers: EWY, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, TLT, DIESEL, Diesel crack spread, SMH, CASH