Iran Holding World Economy Hostage, Interior Secretary Burgum Says

"Domestic oil producers have told the administration that they're increasing output in shale basins... Some of them have drilled but uncompleted wells. They just have to turn those on... you've got companies like Chevron that are indicating that they can accelerate their development in places like [Venezuela]." The administration is actively removing regulatory red tape to encourage domestic and allied production to counter Iranian supply threats. US oil companies with existing DUCs (drilled but uncompleted wells) and favorable foreign licenses (like Chevron in Venezuela) can rapidly increase production to capture elevated global oil prices without requiring massive new capital expenditures. LONG US oil majors and shale producers who benefit from a highly favorable deregulatory environment and the ability to rapidly ramp up high-margin production. If the geopolitical conflict with Iran resolves quickly, the risk premium on oil prices will collapse, compressing producer margins.

"There's going to be a lot of deals announced in the next couple of days at this event in meaning in the tens of billions of dollars... lifting the ban on LNG export facilities... has allowed us to become the number one LNG export." The US government is actively brokering massive, multi-billion dollar LNG supply agreements between US producers and 17 Indo-Pacific nations to replace their reliance on hostile or unstable regimes. This state-sponsored diplomatic push guarantees long-term volume and revenue visibility for major US LNG export infrastructure operators. LONG US LNG exporters and infrastructure companies as government-backed diplomacy secures massive, long-term contracts in Asia. A global natural gas supply glut could depress underlying commodity prices, or domestic infrastructure/pipeline bottlenecks could delay the expansion of export capacity.

When asked if the administration would intervene in the oil paper/derivatives market to lower prices, Burgum stated, "An intervention there to try to manipulate and lower prices would require enormous amounts of capital... the best way to get prices down is increase supply to match demand." The market had fears of direct government manipulation of oil futures (which could artificially crash paper prices, as warned by the CME Group head). Burgum's dismissal of this tactic means oil prices will continue to trade on physical supply/demand fundamentals. However, the administration's aggressive push to cap prices via physical supply increases and sanctions waivers will act as a ceiling on runaway crude prices. WATCH broad oil; the tail-risk of direct derivatives manipulation is low, but the government's coordinated physical supply increases will likely cap significant upside breakouts. An unexpected escalation by Iran that successfully closes the Strait of Hormuz would overwhelm any US domestic supply increases, causing a massive, uncontainable price spike.