Economic Impact of Ending Birthright Citizenship

Summary

• Study estimates a total economic loss of $7.7 trillion from contributions of individuals affected by ending birthright citizenship over past and future decades.
• Future losses could exceed $1 trillion over the working lifetimes of those yet to be born, with effects realized long-term.
• California and Texas would account for one-third of the impact, with California alone over $2 trillion and Texas nearly $1.5 trillion.
• Industries most affected include office administration, construction, and architecture, based on current employment data of birthright citizenship beneficiaries.
• Impact would not be immediate; it would unfold over decades due to the non-retroactive nature of the policy.
• Conservative assumptions suggest actual losses could be twice as high, indicating significant uncertainty in estimates.
• Ending birthright citizenship could exacerbate existing labor shortages, particularly in aging populations and sectors like construction and agriculture.
• Nearly two-thirds of past beneficiaries work in industries requiring higher education; without citizenship, access to education and skilled jobs would be limited.
• This could create an underclass of individuals with restricted legal status, affecting workforce participation and economic mobility.
• No direct international comparisons exist because the U.S. has unique citizenship pathways, making predictions challenging.
• The analysis focuses solely on economic implications, avoiding political angles, and highlights long-term macroeconomic risks.