Ideas
Short December crude; long March contract.
The ultimate Trump trade for 2026 is short oil because Trump must win the affordability argument ahead of the midterms, and policy moves such as Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and ending the Ukraine war are aimed at lowering energy prices. He is not short the front end and is long the March contract, but expects the December contract, currently around $59, to fall to $50 or even the high $40s by year-end, helping gasoline reach about $2.25 and benefiting middle- and lower-income consumers.
Short December crude; long March contract.
The ultimate Trump trade for 2026 is short oil because Trump must win the affordability argument ahead of the midterms, and policy moves such as Venezuela, pressure on Iran, and ending the Ukraine war are aimed at lowering energy prices. He is not short the front end and is long the March contract, but expects the December contract, currently around $59, to fall to $50 or even the high $40s by year-end, helping gasoline reach about $2.25 and benefiting middle- and lower-income consumers.
Long 5s30s Treasury steepener.
A massive tariff-rebate/fiscal stimulus would widen the deficit and raise long-term rates/inflation while the Fed stays dovish, so the long end of the Treasury curve is vulnerable. He is long the 5s30s steepener by shorting 30-year Treasuries and buying 5-year Treasuries.
Long consumer staples on K-reversal.
He has gone long the S&P Equal Weight Consumer Staples Index and wants to buy retailers catering to middle-class and lower-income households because the $2,000 tariff rebate and lower oil prices will benefit the bottom 80% of Americans, upending the K-shaped economy consensus. The index is trading at a five-year low.
Gold bullish on fiscal, Fed risks.
The US capture of Maduro and seizure of Venezuelan oil signals the death of the rule-based international order and shows the US will take resources because it can. Countries can no longer fully trust the dollar system or US guarantees, and gold is the key beneficiary; he remains very bullish even after last year's 60% rally, though he does not expect a repeat of that magnitude.
Short EM equities as order dies.
The rule-based order protected small countries and underpinned the EM convergence trade. After the US took out Maduro and seized Venezuelan oil, small/poor countries face a world where doing too well can invite trouble, so the convergence thesis is dead and EM equities as an asset class are very bearish.
Defense sector benefits from arms race.
With the rule-based order dead, countries big and small must invest more in defense to protect themselves from being taken over. Trump also announced a major defense-spending increase. This is very bullish for defense.
India benefits from lower oil.
India was the worst-performing major stock market last year despite being the fastest-growing major economy, with investors leaving partly due to unresolved US-India trade tensions. Lower oil prices benefit India as a major oil importer and reduce its need to buy Russian oil, helping resolve trade tensions; he really likes India.
Short Nasdaq on AI bubble risk.
The biggest 2026 risk is the AI bubble bursting. The consensus assumes AI capex will rise another 50%, but intensifying competition among LLMs and chipmakers threatens future profitability/ROI, while bottlenecks from silver to high-bandwidth memory raise costs and delay data-center buildouts. Negative news from Oracle, Fermi, CoreWeave, and Broadcom may be spreading to larger cloud/AI names. He has been short Nasdaq but monitors retail dip-buying, which has repeatedly supported the index.
Short Nasdaq on AI bubble risk.
The biggest 2026 risk is the AI bubble bursting. The consensus assumes AI capex will rise another 50%, but intensifying competition among LLMs and chipmakers threatens future profitability/ROI, while bottlenecks from silver to high-bandwidth memory raise costs and delay data-center buildouts. Negative news from Oracle, Fermi, CoreWeave, and Broadcom may be spreading to larger cloud/AI names. He has been short Nasdaq but monitors retail dip-buying, which has repeatedly supported the index.
Watch Microsoft Jan 28 AI earnings.
Microsoft's January 28 earnings and call are a crucial date for the AI trade. If Microsoft hints that the competitive and supply-chain issues seen at smaller AI names are affecting megacap AI leaders, it could confirm the AI bubble thesis and pressure the broader market.
This Julia LaRoche Show video, published January 09, 2026,
features David Woo
discussing CL, CLF24, 5s30s Treasury steepener, RHS, US retailers catering to middle/lower-income households, GLD, EEM, ITA, INDA, QQQ, SMH, MSFT.
11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
David Woo
· Tickers:
CL,
CLF24,
5s30s Treasury steepener,
RHS,
US retailers catering to middle/lower-income households,
GLD,
EEM,
ITA,
INDA,
QQQ,
SMH,
MSFT
