A METODOLOGIA SCRETA PARA ESCOLHER ONDE INVESTIR

Summary

Rafael Medeiros, co-founder of Oikos Wealth Management, explains how they evaluate Brazilian hedge fund (multimercado) managers using due diligence, periodic calls, and insights from ex-employees. He argues against owning portfolios with 20–40 funds, instead preferring a concentrated selection of more aggressive funds (volatility above 4%) to achieve differentiated returns. A key point is the dramatic gap between fund returns and the returns actually captured by investors: aggressive fund investors realize only about 40% of the industry return because they buy after strong performance and sell after weak periods.

• Oikos conducts rigorous due diligence on managers, including periodic conversations, site visits, and information from former employees, to assess internal changes and manager quality.
• They avoid over-diversification (portfolios with 20–40 multimercado funds) because it makes differentiated returns extremely difficult to achieve, influenced by the book “Hedge Fund Mirage”.
• The firm actively seeks more aggressive multimercado funds (volatility >4%), observing that the industry share of such funds grew from 17% in 2005 to 61% today, and that conservative funds often fail to justify their fees.
• Conservative multimercado funds charging 2% management and 20% performance yet delivering near-CDI returns are discouraged; staying directly in CDI is often the better choice.
• A tropicalized study shows investors in the overall multimercado industry capture only ~80% of the funds’ returns, while those in aggressive funds capture merely ~40%, due to entering after good performance and redeeming after bad.
• The host draws a parallel to the Ibovespa, noting that sentiment was much more bullish near 200,000 points in March than at the current 170,000 points, suggesting the typical behavioral mistake of buying high and selling low.