Ideas
Long short-end, short long-end Treasuries
The Fed under Chair Warsch was more dovish than expected, and the long bond does not like that they are not fighting inflation. The market wants hikes. The steepening will continue as the Treasury will need to issue more debt for social security, defense spending, and political compromises, which is bad for the long end, while the short end benefits from a still-uncertain rate path.
Long short-end, short long-end Treasuries
The Fed under Chair Warsch was more dovish than expected, and the long bond does not like that they are not fighting inflation. The market wants hikes. The steepening will continue as the Treasury will need to issue more debt for social security, defense spending, and political compromises, which is bad for the long end, while the short end benefits from a still-uncertain rate path.
Avoid AI/hyperscaler corporate debt
The corporate bond market is starting to sniff out issues in tech, AI, and hyperscaler parts of the market. Spreads for riskier stuff are widening, and bonds like CoreWeave are down 15 points. They are hesitant to add exposure to hyperscaler and data center debt, as correlations with equities will increase and the cost of capital is rising.
Rotate into non-AI securitized debt
Investors should go back to basics and rotate into sectors that do not have exposure to the big AI capex cycle. Agency mortgage-backed securities, non-agency residential mortgages, and asset-backed securities backed by credit cards, auto loans, and hard assets are all areas that provide yield without AI-related risk.
Buy 5-year IG corporate bonds
There are a lot of interesting opportunities coming to the corporate bond market, with high-quality names offering 6.5%–7.5% yields. Any five-year paper with 100–150 basis points of spread is attractive, providing good income especially for portfolios needing yield.
Long Microsoft, Azure and AI resilience
Microsoft delivered fantastic results, crushing Azure growth (43% vs 40% expected). The company is in a unique position with third-party capacity that can be brought back in-house if overcapacity emerges, a strong backlog, and an embrace of multi-modality and distillation. Even without a frontier model, their ability to leverage OpenAI and Anthropic puts them in a good spot, and the capex miss this quarter reduces near-term fears.
Avoid Meta on AI ROI uncertainty
Meta's revenue guidance for Q3 came in lighter than expected, and investors are increasingly focused on the ROI from AI spending. The ad business remains the only clear AI return, while other monetization paths are early-stage. Free cash flow is at its lowest in years, and without visible revenue tailwinds from AI, the stock will remain under pressure.
Long Starbucks, comps and margins improve
Starbucks posted strong same-store sales growth (7.9%) and guided for continued momentum. Profitability is starting to flow through after heavy investment, and the company is balancing spend with cost controls, which should drive further margin improvement.
Long Chipotle, traffic and menu strength
Chipotle is driving traffic through menu innovation, increased limited-time offerings, a revamped loyalty program, and marketing. They have successfully handled past food-safety issues and are expected to address the recent cyclospora outbreak proactively, maintaining solid traffic momentum.
Long Teva, pipeline and volume growth
Teva delivered a strong Q2, raised guidance across all metrics, and sees upside in its key products. There is a large unmet patient need that will drive volume growth even as Medicare pricing rules impact pricing. The pipeline includes a Tourette's syndrome treatment with an expected approval around end of Q2 next year, and the company is well-positioned to maximize these opportunities.
Avoid Qualcomm, mobile share loss accelerates
Qualcomm took its eye off the core mobile business while trying to diversify, losing share to Apple faster than expected (end of this year vs. 2027). Memory pricing is also eating into demand, and the new businesses (auto, IoT, data center) remain unproven and far from offsetting the mobile weakness.
Long ARM on data center diversification
ARM has done a better job diversifying its revenue streams, with a more flexible IP licensing business model. It has stronger traction in automotive and industrial, and a more credible data center story than Qualcomm, which has struggled for a decade to gain a foothold. Despite a thin float that distorts price action, the underlying fundamentals and data center growth are positive.
This Bloomberg Markets video, published July 29, 2026,
features Ken Shinoda, Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo, Rishi Jaluria, Ygal Arounian, Abby Roach, Richard Francis, Jay Goldberg
discussing 2-Year UST, 30-Year UST, AI/hyperscaler corporate bonds, Non-Agency Residential MBS, Agency MBS, Asset-backed securities (consumer/hard assets), 5-Year Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds, MSFT, META, SBUX, CMG, TEVA, QCOM, ARM.
12 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers:
Ken Shinoda,
Alexandra Wilson-Elizondo,
Rishi Jaluria,
Ygal Arounian,
Abby Roach,
Richard Francis,
Jay Goldberg
· Tickers:
2-Year UST,
30-Year UST,
AI/hyperscaler corporate bonds,
Non-Agency Residential MBS,
Agency MBS,
Asset-backed securities (consumer/hard assets),
5-Year Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds,
MSFT,
META,
SBUX,
CMG,
TEVA,
QCOM,
ARM
