Lipsky: China Could Limit Trump's Iran Pressure

Summary

Josh Lipsky discusses rising US debt above $40 trillion, Treasury long-end buybacks, and global investor skepticism about the US fiscal trajectory. He argues Iran pressure is limited without Chinese banks and an international coalition, while reported US-Canada tariff concessions may give Canada and China the best trade-war deals. He also expects near-term USMCA renewal to be unlikely but possible before the end of Trump's term.

• US debt surpasses $40 trillion and Treasury expands long-end buybacks.
• Lipsky sees structural fiscal drivers, not Treasury action, as the core bond-market issue.
• Global debt holders are reassessing US holdings but not selling abruptly.
• He doubts the US can squeeze Iran further without Chinese banks and a coalition.
• Beijing is betting Washington will avoid sanctioning major Chinese banks.
• Reported US-Canada deal may cut steel and aluminum tariffs from 50% to 25%.
• Canada and China appear to get the best trade-war deals, pressuring Mexico and Europe.
• Near-term USMCA renewal is unlikely; possible before the end of Trump's term.