Be sure to check in August... Volatility ends when 'this signal' appears. 'Now is the time to believe in the power of time' (Korean Stock Market) Moon Nam-joong, Research Fellow

Be sure to check in August... Volatility ends when 'this signal' appears. "Now is the time to believe in the power of time" (Korean Stock Market) Moon Nam-joong, Research Fellow

Watch on YouTube ↗ | August 08, 2026 at 08:30 | 28:10 | 815 Money Talk (815머니톡)

Speakers

Moon Nam-joong — Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities

Summary

Moon Nam-joong, Senior Research Fellow at Daishin Securities, outlines the key factors for August markets: Middle East risk resolution as a prerequisite, the continued US economic expansion driving equity gains, and strong AI‑driven earnings. He recommends staying long US equities and Korean AI semiconductor leaders, monitoring AMD for a tactical dip‑buy, waiting for SpaceX’s lock‑up overhang to clear, and expecting the Korean won to remain weak against the dollar through Q3.

Middle East risk (Strait of Hormuz, Iran‑US talks) is the top macro variable; speaker expects eventual de‑escalation.
US expansion cycle, now 75 months old, likely runs to mid‑2026 and has historically powered 100%+ gains in major indices.
Q2 2026 earnings surprises, especially in IT and communication services, act as a safety net and validate the AI theme.
AI value chain leadership drives a focus on HBM, power, and data centers; Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the primary beneficiaries.
AMD’s sell‑off is seen as a sentiment‑driven opportunity linked to the shift from AI training to inference—worth monitoring for a bottom.
SpaceX faces persistent lock‑up supply through end‑2026, making near‑term price difficult, but long‑term fundamentals are intact.
Won weakness is expected to persist through Q3, with USD/KRW remaining in the mid‑1400s, until foreign selling abates in Q4.

Ideas

Moon Nam-joong Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities 9:40

Won to stay weak against USD through Q3.

Temporary factor strengthening the won—such as inflows from SK hynix’s ADR listing and BOJ yen-weakness intervention—will fade. Foreign investors are still net sellers of Korean equities (193 trillion won YTD), and while the selling pace is moderating, the macro backdrop points to continued won weakness through Q3. USD/KRW is likely to stay in the mid‑1400s with a slight depreciation bias, and a meaningful won recovery is not expected until Q4.

Moon Nam-joong Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities 12:14

US expansion cycle supports continued stock gains.

The US economic expansion cycle, now in its 75th month, historically lasts about 7 years and 1 month, suggesting expansion could continue until June 2026. During such expansions, the S&P 500 has averaged a 125% gain, the Nasdaq 160%, and the Dow 131%. Strong Q2 2026 earnings, especially from energy, communication services, and IT, with actual EPS growth far exceeding expectations (47.3% vs. 22.3% forecast), provide a safety net and support further price gains. Therefore, US stocks should keep rising.

Moon Nam-joong Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities 13:39

Samsung and SK hynix lead HBM upside.

The US expansion and AI revolution benefit the semiconductor supply chain, and Korea is a key beneficiary because HBM, the crucial memory component for AI, is supplied primarily by Samsung Electronics and SK hynix. With HBM demand far exceeding supply, these companies stand to capture the bulk of the AI value chain upside. The speaker advises focusing on HBM, power, and data center themes via these Korean champions.

Moon Nam-joong Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities 17:00

SpaceX supply overhang delays eventual upside opportunity.

SpaceX’s IPO locked up most shares initially; only 5% were freely tradable, and staggered lock‑up expirations through end‑2026 will release up to 40% of total shares, creating persistent supply overhang that will cap near‑term price action. However, the company’s underlying fundamentals are strong, and once the overhang clears, the stock should eventually reflect its true value—similar to Meta’s post‑IPO recovery pattern. Investors should wait for the lock‑up headwinds to pass before building a position.

Moon Nam-joong Senior Research Fellow, Daishin Securities 22:45

AMD pullback is a future buying opportunity.

The AI infrastructure shift from training to inference is accelerating demand for custom/ASIC semiconductors, which should benefit AMD. The recent sharp sell-off in AMD is sentiment-driven, not a fundamental breakdown, and could create a buying opportunity once the selling exhausts. The speaker suggests monitoring AMD for a bottom and then considering a position.

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This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published August 08, 2026, features Moon Nam-joong discussing USD/KRW, DIA, SPY, QQQ, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, SPCX, AMD. 5 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Moon Nam-joong · Tickers: USD/KRW, DIA, SPY, QQQ, 005930.KS, 000660.KS, SPCX, AMD