US Ends Hormuz Blockade, Downplays Tolls as 60-Day Clock Starts

Summary

Mona Yacoubian of CSIS assesses the US-Iran interim peace deal, the end of the Strait of Hormuz blockade, and the 60-day timeline for nuclear negotiations. She highlights Iran's economic rewards, the lack of progress on nuclear enrichment and inspections, Gulf state concerns, and the fragility of the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire.

• The US-Iran MOU provides temporary waivers on oil, banking, and insurance sanctions and unfreezes Iranian assets.
• Iran's nuclear enrichment capabilities have advanced, shortening its path to a weapon.
• The 60-day timeline is seen as too short to resolve enrichment freezes and inspections.
• Gulf allies are relieved the shooting stopped but remain worried about Iran's ballistic missiles, drones, and proxies.
• President Trump has staked his reputation on Israel-Lebanon talks restarting Monday.
• Any resumption of conflict in Lebanon could derail the ceasefire.