Every month of delay in normalizing oil supply adds $10 to year-end oil prices, says Daan Struyven
Speakers
Daan Struyven
— Head of Oil Research, Goldman Sachs
Summary
Daan Struyven from Goldman Sachs discusses the oil market outlook amid Middle East supply disruptions. He explains that each month of delay in normalizing Strait of Hormuz flows adds $10 to year-end Brent prices. He also highlights the tail risk of U.S. export restrictions if domestic inventories drain too quickly, which would widen the Brent-WTI spread.
- Daan Struyven analyzes oil price outlook amid supply disruptions from the Strait of Hormuz.
- Base case: flows normalize by end of June, Brent at $90 in Q4.
- Every month of delay adds $10 per barrel to year-end Brent prices.
- U.S. crude and product exports have surged, helping global tightness.
- U.S. commercial diesel stocks could hit critically low levels by August if draws continue.
- U.S. may restrict exports if domestic inventories become too tight, a tail risk.
- Such restrictions would create a wide gap between international (Brent) and U.S. (WTI) prices.
- The speaker advises clients to consider hedging against the risk of a sharp drop in WTI vs Brent.
Trade Ideas
Each month delay adds $10 upside
Every month of delay in the normalization of Persian Gulf oil flows (through the Strait of Hormuz) adds approximately $10 per barrel to year-end Brent crude prices because the market has been absorbing the largest oil supply shock ever via inventory drawdowns, and the longer the disruption lasts the more demand destruction via higher prices becomes the next balancing mechanism.
US export ban widens Brent-WTI gap
If U.S. commercial inventories, especially for diesel, continue to draw rapidly, the U.S. could plausibly ban or restrict crude and product exports by later summer, which would create a wide gap between higher international prices (Brent) and lower U.S. prices (WTI) in the short term; this is a tail risk that should be monitored.
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This CNBC video, published May 19, 2026, features Daan Struyven discussing BNO, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.
Speakers: Daan Struyven · Tickers: BNO, WTI