Name: ¿Se repite la burbuja .COM con las acciones de IA?
Uploaded: 2026-02-05T17:30:11+00:00
Duration: 1228 s

Speakers

Pablo Gil — Head of Research, 21Shares

Summary

Pablo Gil argues the AI boom echoes the dot-com bubble less as a technology failure than as a valuation and business-model reset. He warns that legacy software and AI-capex-heavy companies face disruption and de-rating, while highlighting Nvidia's technical risk, Oracle's debt-funded AI buildout, and a rotation from growth/software/US equities toward value/hardware, emerging markets and the IBEX. He advises underweighting US indexes, especially Nasdaq and the S&P 500, and seeking refuge in global, emerging and European equities if the worst scenario unfolds.

Pablo Gil compares the current AI market to the dot-com boom, emphasizing valuation and business-model risk.
He sees legacy software exposed to AI disruption, naming Atlassian, Salesforce, Adobe and Microsoft as affected.
Nvidia's chart may form a head-and-shoulders pattern with more than 20% downside if confirmed.
Oracle's debt-funded AI data-center spending and rising CDS are framed as warning signs.
He sees a possible rotation from growth/software to value/hardware.
He advises underweighting US equities and increasing exposure to emerging markets and the IBEX as refuge.
He stresses AI is a real revolution but not all current leaders will remain leaders.

Ideas

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 2:05

Nvidia may drop 20% if pattern confirms.

Nvidia is the AI leader with real growth, margins and technological leadership, but its chart may be forming a head-and-shoulders distribution pattern; if confirmed, the technical objective implies a correction greater than 20%.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 8:40

AI disruption threatens legacy software pricing models.

AI tools can replace or commoditize software functions, eroding pricing power and subscription/license models. The market now demands real AI leadership and no longer pays for promises, so legacy software companies risk becoming dispensable or suffering severe valuation compression.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 9:01

Salesforce may fall another 31%.

Salesforce has already fallen about 50% and has confirmed a distribution pattern that points to an additional 31% downside.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 9:17

Adobe double top targets 100.

AI image, video and graphic-design tools are eroding Adobe's pricing power and annual subscription model. Adobe has already fallen about 60%, and if its double-top distribution pattern confirms, it could target 100 while still trading around 279.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 11:18

Hardware outperforms software as AI rotation begins.

The relative chart of hardware companies versus software companies suggests a possible rotation into hardware as AI reshapes technology leadership, with hardware outperforming software.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 11:45

Microsoft tests structural trendline after 25% correction.

Even Microsoft, which has deeply integrated AI into Office, Azure and Copilot, has corrected more than 25% while indexes are near highs and is now testing its structural trendline, posing a possible breakdown risk.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 12:25

Value outperforms growth as certainty sought.

Investors may rotate from growth into value as they seek certainty instead of future profit promises. Value has already rebounded 17% relative to growth, with another 10% potential before the first strong resistance.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 12:25

Value outperforms growth as certainty sought.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 14:09

Oracle's AI bet risks debt stress.

Oracle's aggressive AI data-center bet is funded with debt, has negative free cash flow until at least 2030, needs another $50 billion soon, and its CDS default-risk gauge has surged to levels not seen since the 2008 financial crisis. The market is doubting AI ROI, especially with unprofitable OpenAI as a key client.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 17:18

Underweight US equities versus global markets.

He advises underweighting US equities versus global markets and seeking alternatives to Nasdaq and the S&P 500 because US indexes are excessively concentrated in the Magnificent Seven and exposed to AI valuation and disruption risk.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 17:32

Emerging markets offer refuge from US concentration.

He advises increasing exposure to emerging markets as a refuge/alternative to US concentration. The S&P 500 versus emerging markets relative chart shows a distribution formation favoring emerging markets and a possible break of the US-favorable trend since 2009.

Pablo Gil Head of Research, 21Shares 17:34

IBEX shows relative trend change versus S&P.

He advises adding weight to European markets such as the IBEX 35. The IBEX 35 versus S&P 500 relative chart suggests the start of a trend change, making it an alternative to concentrated US equity exposure.

¿Se repite la burbuja .COM con las acciones de IA?

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