US Jobs Report Unlikely to Trigger Fed Move, Rosenberg Says

Summary

Jeffrey Rosenberg of BlackRock reviewed the US monthly jobs report on Bloomberg Surveillance. He said the report was weak but not weak enough to force a faster Fed move than markets already price, with government-worker distortions and private-payroll softness. He flagged stronger average hourly earnings and the possibility that real wage growth could support consumption and a 2026 rotation into small caps, while cautioning the data is not yet conclusive. He also downplayed the bond-market implications of a potential Supreme Court tariff ruling.

• US jobs report showed softness but not enough to accelerate Fed rate cuts.
• Government-worker distortions affected unemployment and headline payrolls.
• Private payrolls showed some underlying labor-market weakness.
• Average hourly earnings rose 3.8%, supporting real wage growth.
• Rosenberg sees a possible 2026 rotation into small caps if real wages support consumption.
• He warns that mega-cap concentration makes portfolio diversification difficult.
• He says tariff inflation pass-through was overestimated and a court ruling may be a shrug for bonds.