Worst Month Since 2022 Can Get Worse: 3-Minutes MLIV

Summary

• The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is the key central bank to watch, with a 60-65% market-implied probability of a rate hike, which could signal a return to a hiking cycle for developed markets.
• A potential cancellation of the Xi-Trump meeting over disagreements regarding the Strait of Hormuz would be a short-term negative for markets, though not the dominant structural theme.
• The MSCI All Country World Index is facing its worst month since September 2022, driven by unresolved Middle East conflicts, lack of international cooperation, and confusion over US geopolitical goals.
• The analyst is highly bearish on global equities, stating that stocks have not fallen enough and need to be priced materially lower.