Bremmer Says Iran’s Leverage is Real but Will Diminish

Summary

Ian Bremmer tells Bloomberg's Balance of Power that Iran's leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is substantial today but likely to diminish as countries and companies build resilience. He highlights disruptions to Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and Houthi threats to Red Sea shipping as examples of weaker regional powers using disruption to extract concessions. He also discusses the limits of U.S. economic pressure on Iran without sanctions on China or India, and the shifting role of Gulf states in conflict resolution.

• Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline disruption affects 4 million barrels per day to the Red Sea.
• Houthi advances in Yemen raise risks to Bab el-Mandeb/Red Sea transit.
• Bremmer says Iranian leverage over the Strait of Hormuz is real now but should fade over time.
• Gulf states are expected to play a larger diplomatic role in conflict resolution with Iran.
• BRICs cohesion, especially China and India, limits U.S. sanctions pressure on Iran.
• Bremmer notes U.S. economic heft has strengthened relative to Europe.