US Could Control Venezuela Oil for Years, Trump Demands Bigger Defense Spend | The Pulse 1/8/2026

Watch on YouTube ↗ | January 08, 2026 at 13:05 | 48:51 | Bloomberg Markets

Speakers

Alessia Berardi — Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy

Marina Zavolock — Chief European Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley

Andrea

Kat Hidalgo — Private Equity Specialist, Bloomberg

Adam de la Zerda — Founder & CEO, Visby Medical

Jennifer

Ian Bremmer — President and Founder, Eurasia Group

Francine Lacqua — Anchor, Bloomberg

Summary

Francine Lacqua hosts a wide-ranging Pulse episode covering Venezuela oil policy, defense spending, Europe and EM strategy, private credit risk, UK retail and luxury, and at-home diagnostics. Guests debate whether Venezuela's oil disruption will stay contained, favor European defense and AI-linked sectors, and flag risks in private credit and UK consumer spending. The pharma/diagnostics segment highlights the shift to at-home PCR testing and test-to-treat models.

Trump administration signals control over Venezuelan oil sales; oil reaction remains muted.
Trump demands a $500 billion defense spending increase and threatens RTX over investment.
Morgan Stanley's Zavolock favors European defense and European AI-linked semis/capital goods; underweights discretionary retail.
Amundi's Berardi says a weak dollar supports EM and geopolitical risk may lift European spending.
Ian Bremmer says Washington is undoing its global order, with risks around Greenland, NATO, Russia and Taiwan.
Private credit faces rising scrutiny though systemic risk remains unclear.
UK retail sales were mixed; luxury is expected to hold up, with Gucci a key watch item.
Visby Medical's CEO discusses at-home PCR diagnostics and test-to-treat partnerships.

Ideas

Alessia Berardi Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy 2:17

Oil reaction muted; watch supply balance

Oil price reaction to the Venezuela situation has been muted. Fear of supply disruption is being offset by potential increased Venezuelan production, which would curb prices and keep inflation contained, allowing central banks room to continue.

Marina Zavolock Chief European Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley 3:19

European defense offers multiple rearmament catalysts

She favors the defense sector and has been calling for a strong seasonal rally. European defense may trade at a premium to US defense, but European growth is much higher due to the rearmament trade and multiple catalysts including US and European defense spending increases and Greenland-related geopolitical tensions.

Alessia Berardi Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy 5:12

Weak dollar supports emerging market investments

The dollar is not behaving like a safe asset despite geopolitical risk, and as long as it remains relatively weak, that is conducive for emerging-market investments; rising risk perception is less harmful to EM if the dollar stays soft.

Alessia Berardi Amundi Investment Institute, Head of Emerging Macro Strategy 6:31

Geopolitical risk boosts European spending and equities

At current geopolitical risk levels, Europe is likely to spend more on defense and investment, especially in Germany and broadly across Europe. Companies should leverage, making the geopolitical situation a net positive for the European market, especially defense.

Marina Zavolock Chief European Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley 9:21

Underweight European discretionary retail on weak consumer

She underweights the European discretionary retail sector because European consumer spending is weak and the sector is more exposed to the stronger US consumer; the sector is small and not a major index driver.

Marina Zavolock Chief European Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley 10:15

Europe AI semis and capital goods outperform

She likes AI and believes AI adoption ROI is arriving. In Europe, the best AI-enabled exposures are semiconductors and pockets of capital goods, which have performed well and should do very well as adoption continues.

Marina Zavolock Chief European Equity Strategist, Morgan Stanley 10:41

European banks are AI adoption beneficiaries

European banks are among the biggest beneficiaries of AI adoption ROI, but the market has not fully recognized this yet. AI is currently only the seventh positive driver for banks; if it moves into the top three, bank valuations could be re-rated, and she thinks that could happen.

Andrea 28:18

Luxury sales should remain resilient

Luxury demand should be fine despite tough year-over-year comparisons. New designer collections are starting to hit shelves, which should drive incremental sales during a crucial period.

Andrea 30:32

UK tax hikes pressure retail spending

Higher taxes targeting middle-class affluent families in the UK are bad for retail because they are at peak spending power. This will likely cause marginal cuts across restaurants, cars, kitchens and other discretionary items, creating a ripple-down effect on spending.

Kat Hidalgo Private Equity Specialist, Bloomberg 34:13

Private credit bubble risk warrants monitoring

Private credit deserves heightened scrutiny. Data are incomplete and default rates could be higher than reported; trillions flowing in and faltering credit discipline make bubble worries reasonable, even if there is no confirmed systemic risk yet.

Adam de la Zerda Founder & CEO, Visby Medical 40:34

At-home diagnostics shift creates large market

PCR diagnostics are shifting from large hospital labs to the home. FDA authorization for advanced at-home testing, partnerships with Quest Diagnostics, Labcorp and DoorDash, and telemedicine integration create a test-to-treat ecosystem with a large addressable market across STIs, respiratory infections, UTIs and other conditions.

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This Bloomberg Markets video, published January 08, 2026, features Alessia Berardi, Marina Zavolock, Andrea, Kat Hidalgo, Adam de la Zerda discussing WTI, European defense sector, EEM, VGK, European discretionary retail, AI-SECTOR, SMH, EXI, EUFN, Luxury sector, UK retail, BIZD, At-home diagnostics. 11 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Alessia Berardi, Marina Zavolock, Andrea, Kat Hidalgo, Adam de la Zerda · Tickers: WTI, European defense sector, EEM, VGK, European discretionary retail, AI-SECTOR, SMH, EXI, EUFN, Luxury sector, UK retail, BIZD, At-home diagnostics