Bitcoin Cycle Is Not Dead Yet Q4 Upside Potential After Shaking Out Retail Investors in a Downturn | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Kang Hwan-guk

Summary

Kang Hwan-guk discusses the cryptocurrency downturn, attributing it to capital rotation into AI semiconductors and leverage liquidation. He expects Bitcoin to recover in Q4 2025 based on historical cycle patterns and favors revenue-generating altcoins like Hyperliquid. He also shares trading strategies including shorting junk coins and using moving averages, and mentions holding USDT for Kimchi premium arbitrage.

• Bitcoin has fallen ~20% from $80K to $63K, driven by ETF outflows and AI semiconductor capital rotation.
• Speaker sees Bitcoin's 200-week moving average as a bottom indicator already reached, but other metrics not at extreme levels.
• He expects a Q4 rebound following the pattern of past cycles, likely after a major incident (e.g., exchange collapse).
• AI semiconductors are sucking liquidity from crypto, but the crypto industry itself is not dying due to RWA tokenization and 24/7 trading.
• Hyperliquid (HYPE) is highlighted as a revenue-generating altcoin with 40% fee market share among DEXs.
• USDT is parked on Upbit to exploit the -3% Kimchi premium, expecting reversion to positive.
• Shorting low-quality altcoins is presented as a viable bearish strategy in the current downtrend.
• The speaker uses 120-day moving average and momentum strategies for timing Bitcoin and altcoin trades.