Crude oil rally has more room to run, says Citi's Max Layton

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 14, 2026 at 19:07  |  4:30  |  CNBC
Speakers
Max Layton — Global Head of Commodities Research, Citi

Summary

Max Layton, Citi's global head of commodities, says Brent can hit $70 and WTI around $67 in the next few days as geopolitical risk premiums rise on Iran and Russia-Ukraine supply concerns. He notes Citi has shifted from a bearish oil stance to an above-consensus neutral-to-slightly-bearish view, with high demand/supply uncertainty, China stockpiling, and export disruptions limiting the visible surplus. He warns the rally is premium-driven and could reverse quickly if Iran or Russia-Ukraine risks resolve.

  • Max Layton expects Brent to reach $70 and WTI about $67 near term.
  • Geopolitical risk premium has risen about $5 and could rise another $5.
  • Iran protests or military action and Russia-Ukraine tensions are key upside risks.
  • Citi has shifted from bearish to above-consensus neutral/slightly bearish on crude.
  • China stockpiling and supply disruptions are absorbing surplus barrels.
  • Oil demand and supply estimates are unusually uncertain and wide-ranging.
  • Risk premium could collapse if Iran or Russia-Ukraine tensions resolve.
Ideas
Max Layton Global Head of Commodities Research, Citi 0:17
Brent and WTI can rally further.
Citi expects Brent to hit $70 in the next few days and WTI to rise to around $67, driven by a geopolitical risk premium that has already risen about $5 and could rise another $5 on Iran protests or military action, plus elevated Russia-Ukraine supply risks. He says Citi has shifted from a multiyear bearish view to an above-consensus neutral-to-slightly-bearish view, effectively one of the more bullish views, because demand/supply uncertainty is high, China stockpiling is absorbing surplus barrels, and export disruptions leave little surplus at the moment. He cautions the risk premium can collapse quickly if Iran or Russia-Ukraine risks resolve.
BNO WTI HIGH
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This CNBC video, published January 14, 2026, features Max Layton discussing BNO, WTI. 1 trade idea extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Max Layton  · Tickers: BNO, WTI