Never Short Stocks, The Great Bear Trap, & Why Crypto is Weak - Tolks
Speakers
Thread Guy
— Crypto influencer, independent
Summary
Tolks and Thread Guy discuss the current market environment with oil surging, crypto weak, and equities strong despite geopolitical turmoil. Tolks shares his bearish crypto short positions, OXY call position, VIX calls, IWM puts, and spot crypto buys, emphasizing the importance of listening to price action and not forcing bottoms.
- Oil spikes to new highs amid Iran tensions and extended blockades.
- Crypto is following gold lower, creating a bearish short-term setup.
- Equities show extraordinary buying pressure, with a generational bid on dips.
- Tolks is short BTC, ETH, and SOL while also accumulating spot BTC, ZEC, and HYPE.
- He holds OXY call options as a play on the oil rally.
- Tolks buys VIX calls as a cheap hedge and shorts IWM for small-cap exposure.
- The discussion highlights the crypto-native trading behavior spreading to all markets.
- Patience is advised: wait for clear momentum rather than trying to catch bottoms.
Trade Ideas
Long OXY calls on oil strength
Oil prices are structurally higher and surging. He holds a sizable OXY call position that is up 152% and believes the oil rally will continue, making OXY a beneficiary.
Buy VIX calls at floor
VIX is at a floor around 17-18, and buying VIX calls provides a cheap hedge against equity tail risk. He is fine with them going to zero, but they pay off when volatility spikes.
Short IWM on small cap weakness
Small caps (IWM) have been trending much weaker than large caps and are more sensitive to interest rates. If equities turn, IWM will decline sharply, so he bought puts to hedge his tech exposure.
Crypto weak, short BTC ETH SOL
Crypto is weak, following gold instead of equities, with oil surging and risk-off sentiment. He is short BTC, ETH, and SOL to protect his spot positions and trade the downside momentum, expecting further declines.
Crypto weak, short BTC ETH SOL
Despite short-term bearishness, he is buying spot BTC, ZEC, and HYPE at lower levels for long-term asymmetric upside. He likes ZEC for privacy and HYPE as a platform, and believes prices are attractive for accumulating.
