Name: Hunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters Capital
Uploaded: 2026-09-13T16:00:37+00:00
Duration: 3609 s

Speakers

Freddy Brick — Partner, Muddy Waters Capital

Summary

Freddy Brick, partner at Muddy Waters Capital, discusses the firm's expansion into metals and mining with a concentrated, bottom-up fund focused on junior miners. He explains why the sector remains capital-starved and sentiment-depressed despite high metal prices, and why he sees opportunities in overlooked projects rather than taking a strong macro view on metals. He also outlines expected M&A activity, hedging challenges, long activism, and several specific positions including Snowline Gold, Mayfair Gold, and Faraday Copper.

Muddy Waters launched a metals and mining strategy focused on concentrated junior mining investments with roughly 50% net exposure.
Junior miners have suffered from capital outflows, limited talent, poor liquidity, and restrictive fund/exchange rules since the last super cycle.
Freddy Brick is constructive on the copper bull thesis but cautious on timing and does not have a strong gold or silver price view.
He expects a mining M&A wave as cash-rich majors and mid-tiers need to replace depleting reserves.
Hedging is difficult in junior miners; the strategy uses index or metal shorts and options selectively.
The firm prefers long activism and working with management to lower cost of capital and advance projects.
Specific positions discussed include Snowline Gold, Mayfair Gold, and Faraday Copper.
Alpha in the strategy is expected to take 3-5 years as projects are permitted, built, and eventually recognized.

Ideas

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 1:56

Junior miners are structurally mispriced and overlooked.

Junior mining has been structurally starved of capital since 2011 due to ETF and mutual fund outflows, poor sector performance, a shortage of talent, low metal prices, limited drilling, constrained liquidity, and TSX/TSXV eligibility rules. Many viable projects are now distressed and overlooked even as higher metal prices improve their economics, and the speaker expects concentrated, bottom-up investors to earn alpha by owning assets that work across the last decade's metal prices. The fund runs about 50% net exposure to accumulate during vicious drawdowns.

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 3:21

Copper supply constraints support long-term bull case.

The copper bull thesis makes sense because bulk copper assets are increasingly hard to find, discoveries are moving into hairier jurisdictions, safer jurisdictions face red tape, and first drill hole to production often takes more than 10 years with major mine expansions delayed. Demand should be supported by Western infrastructure and data centers even as Chinese housing demand weakens and scrap supplies some slack. The speaker cautions on timing, but says if one invests purely on the macro copper thesis, producers are the direct expression.

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 28:42

Faraday Copper has strong backers and management.

Faraday Copper was owned at much lower prices because it was backed by the Lundin family. The CEO had previously run an asset the firm was involved in and is highly regarded, the asset was getting better, and the stock had been range-bound for years. The backing and management quality should help finance and advance the project.

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 39:08

Majors need reserves, M&A wave coming.

Cash-rich majors and mid-tiers are eating themselves from the inside, similar to drug companies facing patent cliffs. They need to replace depleting reserves but have not discovered enough new projects, so he expects an M&A wave over the next couple of years for juniors that are permitted or moving toward construction. The set of available targets depends on who raised capital and advanced projects during the prior inactive M&A period.

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 39:49

Snowline Gold is a likely takeover target.

Snowline Gold is a world-class Yukon asset and a no-brainer takeout candidate for a range of players, with the potential to open up the whole district. It is a longer-lead project that needs infrastructure, but the speaker likes the management team. A deal likely needs the stock price higher so an acquirer can pay a value-reflective premium without upsetting shareholders.

Freddy Brick Partner, Muddy Waters Capital 56:05

Mayfair Gold is asymmetric and undervalued.

Muddy Waters owns just shy of 20% of Mayfair Gold after a proxy battle and has installed a new management team, including CEO Drew and a CFO from a major, plus permitting expertise. The project is phenomenal, relatively straightforward, and has manageable capex, with shareholders including Oak Tree and notable family offices. The speaker views the share price as dislocated from an asymmetric opportunity that should eventually be recognized as milestones are executed.

Hunting for Value in Mining Stocks Amid Soaring Metals Prices | Freddy Brick | Muddy Waters Capital

Summary

Ideas

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