Freddy Brick

The copper bull thesis makes sense because bulk copper assets are increasingly hard to find, discoveries are moving into hairier jurisdictions, safer jurisdictions face red tape, and first drill hole to production often takes more than 10 years with major mine expansions delayed. Demand should be supported by Western infrastructure and data centers even as Chinese housing demand weakens and scrap supplies some slack. The speaker cautions on timing, but says if one invests purely on the macro copper thesis, producers are the direct expression.

Faraday Copper was owned at much lower prices because it was backed by the Lundin family. The CEO had previously run an asset the firm was involved in and is highly regarded, the asset was getting better, and the stock had been range-bound for years. The backing and management quality should help finance and advance the project.

Junior mining has been structurally starved of capital since 2011 due to ETF and mutual fund outflows, poor sector performance, a shortage of talent, low metal prices, limited drilling, constrained liquidity, and TSX/TSXV eligibility rules. Many viable projects are now distressed and overlooked even as higher metal prices improve their economics, and the speaker expects concentrated, bottom-up investors to earn alpha by owning assets that work across the last decade's metal prices. The fund runs about 50% net exposure to accumulate during vicious drawdowns.

Muddy Waters owns just shy of 20% of Mayfair Gold after a proxy battle and has installed a new management team, including CEO Drew and a CFO from a major, plus permitting expertise. The project is phenomenal, relatively straightforward, and has manageable capex, with shareholders including Oak Tree and notable family offices. The speaker views the share price as dislocated from an asymmetric opportunity that should eventually be recognized as milestones are executed.