U.S. economy slowed to 1.5% growth rate in Q2; June core inflation at 3.3%

Summary

Rick Santelli breaks down the latest U.S. economic data, including jobless claims, personal income and spending, PCE inflation, and the advance Q2 GDP report. He highlights well-behaved labor market data, a slightly light GDP headline with strong consumption and a hot price index, and notes the bond market's focus on a key technical pivot in 10-year yields and recent curve steepening.

• Jobless claims at 197,000, below 200,000, described as well-behaved.
• Core PCE year-over-year came in at 3.3% as expected, the lightest since March.
• Q2 GDP headline 1.5% (light) but consumption strong at 3.2%, the best since Q3 2025.
• GDP price index surged to 6.2% quarter-over-quarter, the highest since Q2 2022.
• 10-year Treasury yield at 4.67%, a key technical pivot (May 19 cycle high yield close).
• Yield curve steepening in 2s10s from 24 to 42 bp in one month highlighted as a major move.
• Crude oil noted higher on Middle East tensions but not above $100.