Bitcoin’s Next Big Move Depends on This One Metric w/ David Duong

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 25, 2026 at 14:00  |  8:55  |  Milk Road Daily
Speakers
David Duong — Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase

Summary

David Duong remains constructive on crypto and Bitcoin, with liquidity rebuilding after the October 10 reset and MicroStrategy's large BTC purchase likely forcing short covering. He expects strength at least into Q1 2026 and possibly Q2, though he sees persistent MNAV discounts for digital asset treasury companies due to index-inclusion uncertainty and dilution risk. The clip also touches on tax-loss selling, long-term holder behavior, and early altcoin/privacy-token interest.

  • Liquidity is presented as the key driver for Bitcoin's next move.
  • David Duong remains constructive on crypto for Q1 2026, with possible extension into Q2.
  • Market-maker conditions and leverage/liquidity are improving after the October 10 reset.
  • December tax-loss harvesting and ETF outflows are reversing.
  • MicroStrategy's 13k-14k BTC purchase likely forced short covering and helped BTC clear $95K.
  • Long-term Bitcoin holders do not appear to be outright selling, suggesting the Q4 bleed may be over.
  • DATs may keep trading at MNAV discounts because MSCI review uncertainty and dilution risk persist.
  • Altcoins and privacy tokens are seeing marginal interest, but crypto still lags US stocks.
Ideas
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 1:08
Bitcoin breakout driven by short covering
MicroStrategy's roughly 13,000-14,000 BTC purchase likely forced shorts to cover and helped the market gap higher; Bitcoin also cleared the $95K level that had been capping momentum. Combined with evidence that long-term holder outflows are not producing comparable exchange inflows, the earlier Q4 bleed looks less likely to continue.
BTC HIGH
David Duong Head of Institutional Research, Coinbase 5:43
DAT discounts likely persist on index uncertainty
The MSCI-related forced-selling overhang has receded, but Duong thinks DAT MNAV discounts can persist. MSCI has only postponed its decision and is limiting index implementation changes during review, so future DAT equity issuance may face weaker passive absorption. As a result, investors can reasonably refuse to pay a premium, and dilution remains punitive.
Digital asset treasury companies (DATs) HIGH
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This Milk Road Daily video, published January 25, 2026, features David Duong discussing BTC, Digital asset treasury companies (DATs). 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: David Duong  · Tickers: BTC, Digital asset treasury companies (DATs)