Crise no Supremo já impacta as pesquisas eleitorais

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 08, 2026 at 21:52  |  19:09  |  Fernando Ulrich
Speakers
Fernando Ulrich — Financial Commentator, Independent

Summary

The video analyzes Brazil's escalating institutional crisis involving the STF, Alexandre de Moraes, the Federal Police, and the Banco Master case. It shows the political fallout reaching the 2026 election, with Lula declining and Flávio Bolsonaro advancing in polls. Markets are reacting positively to the higher probability of a fiscal-friendly government change, with the real strengthening, Brazilian equities rising, and local interest rates falling.

  • André Mendonça suspends the Federal Police director and alleges illegal monitoring.
  • Former STF ministers pressure the court president to hold a public plenary session.
  • New Banco Master documents are revealed involving Daniel Vorcaro and Alexandre de Moraes.
  • Polls show Flávio Bolsonaro overtaking Lula in a BTG Nexus second-round scenario.
  • The market reprises higher odds of government change: USDBRL falls below 5.08 and the Ibovespa rises.
  • EWZ rises about 2% and the DI 2035 yield returns to 14% despite U.S. 10-year stress.
  • Rumors suggest a future transition package could cut R$150-200 billion in fiscal spending.
Ideas
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 14:54
Real strengthens on domestic political repricing.
The same increased probability of government change and stronger fiscal-responsibility signaling pushed the dollar below R$5.08 and strengthened the Brazilian real. The speaker emphasizes this is a domestic repricing of the election scenario, not an external move, because the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield was stressed near 4.8% at the same time.
USDBRL HIGH
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 15:05
Political alternation drives Brazilian equities higher.
The institutional crisis and new revelations increase the probability of a power shift to a Flávio Bolsonaro government seen as more market-friendly and committed to fiscal adjustment, making investors reprice Brazilian equities positively. The speaker notes the Ibovespa touched 189,000, up about 2%, and the dollar-denominated EWZ rose 2%, even while U.S. long rates were stressed, indicating a domestic election-driven repricing rather than an external move.
BOVA11.SA EWZ HIGH
Fernando Ulrich Financial Commentator, Independent 15:31
Fiscal optimism pushes local interest rates down.
The Brazilian interest rate curve fell sharply as the market priced a greater chance of a more fiscally disciplined government. The speaker highlights the DI 2035 contract returning to test 14%, a level not seen since early June, and links the move to election-driven repricing, including rumors of a transition fiscal package that would cut or contain R$150-200 billion in spending.
DI 2035 HIGH
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This Fernando Ulrich video, published September 08, 2026, features Fernando Ulrich discussing USDBRL, BOVA11.SA, EWZ, DI 2035. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Fernando Ulrich  · Tickers: USDBRL, BOVA11.SA, EWZ, DI 2035