Risk Embers Not Yet Extinguished: Kevin Warsh's First FOMC and Japan Interest Rates | Seo Dong-ju, Kim Dong-hwan, Park Sang-hyuk Digital Asset Editor-in-Chief

Summary

The panel dissects the fragile US-Iran ceasefire, the upcoming FOMC meeting under new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, and a widely expected Bank of Japan rate hike, all of which hang over risk assets. For crypto, they highlight a tentative ETF inflow revival, MicroStrategy's continued Bitcoin accumulation, and the CFTC's landmark move to allow perpetual futures in the US—a direct boost for Coinbase—while noting the stalling of the Clarity Act as a regulatory headwind.

• The US-Iran MOA is a 60-day truce, not a full peace treaty; disputes over nuclear talks and the Hormuz Strait persist, keeping a floor under oil prices.
• Kevin Warsh's first FOMC press conference is a key event; markets are on edge and ready to sell Treasuries if his message disappoints.
• The Bank of Japan is expected to hike rates, which historically triggers yen carry-trade unwinding and sharp crypto sell-offs.
• Bitcoin ETFs saw their first meaningful inflow in a month ($86M), led by BlackRock's IBIT, hinting at returning demand.
• MicroStrategy's Michael Saylor signaled more BTC purchases, though funding via STRC preferred stock is constrained.
• The Clarity Act is bogged down by partisan disputes, lowering passage odds to 50% and removing a near-term crypto catalyst.
• The CFTC approved perpetual futures in the US; Coinbase is ready to offer them, potentially siphoning volume from offshore exchanges.