Why Korean Shipbuilding Has Nothing to Worry About for the Next 3 Years | Yoo Jae-sun, Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center

대한민국 조선, 앞으로 3년은 걱정없는 이유 | 유재선 하나증권 리서치센터 수석연구위원 [더블 업]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 10, 2026 at 00:59  |  15:30  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Yoo Jaesun — Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Yoo Jae-sun, a senior research fellow at Hana Securities Research Center, explains why he expects the Korean shipbuilding upcycle to remain intact for at least two to three years. He points to a large post-COVID order backlog, limited capacity additions, replacement demand, and continued LNG-related demand, while flagging raw material, currency, and demand risks. His top pick is HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, and he also discusses HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering as a dividend-supported holding-company play and Daehan Shipbuilding as a high-margin mid-sized shipbuilder.

  • Korean shipbuilding is described as being in a very strong cycle with order backlogs staying high.
  • Minimal yard capacity expansion and aging fleets support continued newbuild demand.
  • US and Qatar LNG export projects and resumed LNG carrier orders are key demand drivers.
  • Order intake and newbuilding prices are viewed as the main stock-price triggers.
  • HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is the speaker's top pick on earnings mix and Canada submarine exposure.
  • HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering is framed as an upcycle-plus-dividend holding-company idea.
  • Daehan Shipbuilding is noted for high tanker-focused margins and a bright outlook.
  • Main risks include raw material cost spikes, won appreciation, and a broad shipping demand slowdown.
Ideas
Yoo Jaesun Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center 0:53
Korean shipbuilding multi-year upcycle intact
The Korean shipbuilding sector is in a very strong cycle. Post-COVID order backlogs remain elevated while capacity expansion has been minimal, and demand is supported by replacement of aging vessels and continued US/Qatar LNG export projects. The speaker treats order intake and newbuilding prices as the key stock triggers; newbuild prices have been flat rather than broken and are expected to resume rising when high-priced LNG orders restart. Improving construction productivity is supporting revenue and profit turnover even if prices stay flat, and he expects no order or earnings deterioration for at least two to three years, with valuation upside still open because all metrics are at record highs and there is no clear historical ceiling.
Korean shipbuilding sector HIGH
Yoo Jaesun Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center 8:27
Upcycle plus dividend with NAV buffer
HD Korea Shipbuilding & Offshore Engineering is an intermediate holding company that inevitably trades at a NAV discount to its stake value, and its largest stake is Hyundai Heavy Industries, so the stock tends to track the shipbuilding upcycle. Its relative advantage versus other shipbuilders is higher dividend payments, which gives it more downside buffer. The speaker frames it as an appropriate 'shipbuilding upcycle plus dividend stock' position.
009540.KS MED
Yoo Jaesun Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center 9:03
Top pick on earnings mix shift
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is the speaker's top shipbuilding pick. He says its earnings peak has not been reached, and as older low-priced backlog clears and 2023-24 high-priced orders move into construction, it should show the largest profit growth among shipbuilders this year. A second positive is its participation with Hanwha Ocean as one team in the Canada submarine project, which adds expectations for the special-vessel business.
329180.KS HIGH
Yoo Jaesun Senior Research Fellow, Hana Securities Research Center 11:54
Mid-size shipbuilder with high margins
Daehan Shipbuilding is the remaining listed mid-sized shipbuilder. Although the speaker does not formally cover it, he cites generally known facts: it has built a large order backlog centered on mid/large tankers, its operating margin is in the 20% range, it succeeded in winning high-priced vessel orders early this year, its stock has performed relatively well year-to-date, and its outlook is bright.
439260.KS MED
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This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published February 10, 2026, features Yoo Jaesun discussing Korean shipbuilding sector, 009540.KS, 329180.KS, 439260.KS. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Yoo Jaesun  · Tickers: Korean shipbuilding sector, 009540.KS, 329180.KS, 439260.KS