JAKURSKI: "VOCÊ SÓ GANHA MUITO DINHEIRO ASSIM"

Summary

André Jakurski discusses portfolio positioning amid global debt and demographic risks. He argues US 10-year bonds are a loser in a neutron-bomb scenario where creditors lose and real assets survive, noting they have already lost over 20% to inflation. He also warns that US equities may face a long plateau and expresses structural optimism on AI productivity gains.

• Jakurski frames a potential ‘neutron bomb’ debt crisis where creditors lose but real assets continue to exist and eventually benefit from massive liquidity.
• He points out US 10-year Treasury bonds have already posted a real loss of more than 20%, implying they remain a poor risk-reward holding.
• He highlights the extreme allocation difference between US investors (40-60% in equities) and Brazilian investors (3-5%), noting past equity booms in both markets.
• On US stocks, he raises the possibility that the S&P 500 may deliver near-zero real returns over the next two decades after the extraordinary post-2000 outperformance.
• He is structurally bullish on artificial intelligence as a transformative force that will boost productivity and help offset demographic headwinds.
• Jakurski emphasizes the difficulty of predicting timing and warns against extrapolating recent trends, citing his own mistake of underestimating the S&P 500.