Tens of Trillions in Selling Bombs...! Is That Really True? I Calculated It
Tens of Trillions in Selling Bombs...!" Is That Really True? I Calculated It | Vincent, Hana Securities Analyst [Vincent's Checkpoint]
Speakers
Vincent
— Analyst, Hana Securities
Summary
Vincent, an analyst at Hana Securities, delivers his monthly market outlook. He addresses fears that the National Pension Service will dump stocks, showing the selling pace is capped and easily absorbed by retail flows. He reaffirms a structurally bullish view on KOSPI driven by record semiconductor exports and argues market cap can reach 1,000 trillion won. Samsung and SK hynix remain top picks despite near-term earnings noise, while Google's upcoming capex announcement is flagged as a key sentiment catalyst. He also expects the Korean won to appreciate and sees a volatile stock-picking environment emerging in KOSDAQ.
- NPS selling fears are exaggerated: monthly sell limit of 4 trillion won vs. individuals buying 16 trillion won monthly.
- KOSPI earnings are set to hit historic highs, supporting a market cap of 1,000 trillion won.
- Exports reached record levels, with semiconductors dominating at over 40% of total exports.
- Samsung Electronics Q2 earnings dip is due to front-loaded bonus provisions; underlying cycle remains strong – buy the dip.
- SK hynix benefits from AI/HBM demand and strategic supply agreements; mega cluster plans not yet priced in.
- Google's July 22 capex guidance could erase market worries about the AI spending cycle.
- Korean won to strengthen as Bank of Korea begins hiking while the Fed faces constraints, plus trade surplus support.
- KOSDAQ will see heightened volatility in Q3 ahead of new listing/delisting rules in Q4, favoring active stock selection.
Ideas
KOSPI to 1,000 trillion won market cap
Korean KOSPI market cap can reach 1,000 trillion won (1경) as KOSPI-listed companies are set to produce record operating profits of 1,000 trillion won over the next year. Exports are at historic highs, with June reaching over 100 billion USD and annual export pace approaching 1 trillion USD, led by semiconductors. The concern about National Pension Service heavy selling is overblown: total NPS domestic stock holdings are about 513 trillion won, but even if they reduce the full tactical and strategic allocation band (8ppt), selling would take years due to a monthly sell cap of 4 trillion won, while individual investors are buying an average of 16 trillion won per month, fully absorbing any NPS selling. Therefore, fundamentals remain strong and supply fears are manageable, supporting a continued bull market.
Buy Samsung on dip, earnings noise temporary
Samsung Electronics Q2 earnings might show a dip to 70 trillion won range due to large bonus provisions being front-loaded in H1, but that is a temporary accounting effect. The underlying semiconductor cycle remains extremely strong, and the stock has corrected enough to provide an attractive buying opportunity. Vincent advises concentration in Samsung and SK hynix, as the semiconductor upcycle is not peaking and AI adoption is only beginning.
Hold SK hynix, memory cycle not over
SK hynix is a core holding for the AI-driven memory upcycle. The company's HBM demand remains robust and the shift from long-term agreements to more restrictive strategic customer agreements (SCA) by competitors like Micron indicates lengthening contract cycles. Upcoming catalysts include SK hynix's ADR and earnings, Google's capex confirmation, and the mega semiconductor cluster investments that are not yet priced in.
KOSDAQ volatility spike before rule changes
KOSDAQ is entering a high-volatility phase in Q3 ahead of new listing and delisting rules (승강제) to be implemented in Q4. The government is pivoting from quantitative growth to selective promotion of AI and bio tech companies. This regulatory shift will create wide stock dispersion and a fertile environment for active stock picking, though the index itself may remain directionless until clarity emerges.
Korean won to appreciate on BoK hikes
The Korean won is poised to strengthen against the dollar. The Bank of Korea will start hiking rates in July, narrowing the rate differential as the Federal Reserve may not be able to raise rates as much as markets expect. Record export receipts and the eventual repatriation of dollar earnings will provide additional supply, and the won is significantly undervalued after breaching 1,500 per dollar.
Watch Google capex for AI confirmation
Google's Q2 earnings on July 22 could be a major positive catalyst. If the company reaffirms aggressive capital expenditure plans, especially on AI infrastructure, it would remove market fears that hyperscalers will curb chip orders and would validate the prolonged memory upcycle. This announcement alone could shift overall sentiment.
