Name: BITCOIN CAIU 50%: POR QUE ISSO NÃO É NECESSARIAMENTE SINAL DE COMPRA | Crypto Never Sleeps #57
Uploaded: 2026-07-04T21:00:06+00:00
Duration: 4117 s

Speakers

Lucas Costa — Head de Análise Técnica do BTG Pactual

Valter Rebêlo — Apresentador / Head de Análise da Empiricus

Summary

Valter Rebêlo interviews Lucas Costa, Head of Technical Analysis at BTG Pactual, on why Bitcoin's 50% drop is not a sure buy signal. Lucas explains using trend models, momentum, and intermarket analysis to show Bitcoin remains in a downtrend. He also identifies a regime shift where dollar strength is breaking out and war/oil themes are fading, and warns about the risk in MicroStrategy's preferred shares. The conversation covers systematic trading, the right use of AI, and the importance of logical reasoning and creativity.

Bitcoin is in a clear downtrend across short-, medium-, and long-term indicators, and a 50% drop alone does not justify buying.
Lucas outlines a top-down intermarket framework that uses DXY, S&P 500, oil, bonds, and Bitcoin to identify the prevailing market regime.
The dollar (DXY) is breaking a 10-year resistance, signaling a stronger greenback, while oil is falling as the market prices out the war premium.
MicroStrategy’s preferred stock (STRK) is flagged as risky given its dependence on continuous Bitcoin appreciation.
The discussion emphasizes rule-based, systematic approaches to trading and the danger of emotional decision-making.
AI is a powerful tool best used to augment deep domain expertise, not as a substitute for human judgment or rigorous thinking.

Ideas

Lucas Costa Head de Análise Técnica do BTG Pactual 10:39

Bitcoin downtrend persists, avoid buying.

Bitcoin is in a downtrend across all three timeframes (short, medium, long term) according to the Keller Trend model. Price is below key moving averages and is testing the 200-week moving average near $62,440, but there is no bullish price structure. A 50% drop does not automatically signal a bottom; the speaker warns against buying purely because of the drawdown and prefers waiting for price action to show a bullish reversal and momentum before entering.

Lucas Costa Head de Análise Técnica do BTG Pactual 34:42

Dollar breakout signals strengthening greenback.

The U.S. Dollar (DXY) has broken above the major resistance level around 101.5, which had been a key barrier for the last 10 years. This breakout signals a regime of dollar strength, with the dollar gaining momentum as capital flows return to the U.S. driven by de-escalation expectations and upcoming IPOs.

Lucas Costa Head de Análise Técnica do BTG Pactual 35:50

War theme ends, oil pressured lower.

The market is transitioning away from the war/inflation/expensive oil regime. Oil has already dropped sharply to around $68 as the market prices in the end of the conflict. The speaker sees the theme that supported higher oil prices ending, suggesting oil will remain under pressure and previous long positions tied to that theme should be closed.

Lucas Costa Head de Análise Técnica do BTG Pactual 49:33

MicroStrategy preferred risky if Bitcoin stagnates.

MicroStrategy's preferred shares (STRK, called 'Stretch') are designed to deliver an 11.5% dividend and trade around $100, but the entire business premise rests on Bitcoin compounding at roughly 29% annually. With Bitcoin falling and no guarantee it won't trade sideways for years, the thesis is under severe pressure, making the preferred shares highly risky.

BITCOIN CAIU 50%: POR QUE ISSO NÃO É NECESSARIAMENTE SINAL DE COMPRA | Crypto Never Sleeps #57

Summary

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