Increasing KOSPI Valuation Burden in a High-Interest Rate Environment and Domestic Investment Strategy

Increasing KOSPI Valuation Burden in a High-Interest Rate Environment and Domestic Investment Strategy | Chesley Investment Advisory Deputy Park Seong-gu
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 07, 2026 at 08:00  |  53:48  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Hwang Su-wook — Research Fellow, Meritz Securities
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

The video discusses the KOSPI's valuation burden in a high-interest-rate environment, emphasizing that Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are undervalued and will continue to lead, while the rest of the market is overvalued. It presents a detailed earnings analysis for SK hynix, highlights governance reforms as a catalyst for low-PBR stocks like Hyundai Steel, and concludes that the AI cycle offsets rate concerns.

  • KOSPI valuation is high for non-semi stocks due to multiple expansion without earnings support.
  • Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are cheap on earnings and expected to outperform.
  • SK hynix's HBM pricing upside from NVIDIA and LTA contracts could drive significant earnings surprises.
  • The anti-stock-suppression law may catalyze low PBR stocks, with Hyundai Steel as an example.
  • Interest rate concerns are downplayed; AI direction is seen as more important.
  • KOSPI target of 11,700 by year-end 2025 is achievable via earnings growth alone.
  • Market concentration in semis is a structural shift, not a bubble.
  • Self-directed learning is emphasized to understand new trends and reduce risk.
Trade Ideas
Hwang Su-wook Research Fellow, Meritz Securities 1:04
Samsung and SK hynix are undervalued
Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the only KOSPI stocks where earnings growth has matched or exceeded price increases, so their P/E ratios have compressed. The rest of the market has risen on pure multiple expansion without earnings support, making rotation unlikely. These two will continue to lead.
Hwang Su-wook Research Fellow, Meritz Securities 1:04
Samsung and SK hynix are undervalued
SK hynix derives ~30% of revenue from HBM, with 30-40% under LTA contracts with big tech. NVIDIA's upcoming 2025 HBM supply contract is expected to accept 70%+ price increases, forcing other customers to pay even more. This could push 2027 operating profit above 50 trillion won, well above consensus, due to broad price hikes across HBM generations.
Hwang Su-wook Research Fellow, Meritz Securities 8:57
KOSPI targets 11,700 by year-end
Based on Meritz's estimate of 2027 KOSPI net profit at 1,000 trillion won, ROE of 24%, COE assumptions (8% ERP, 4.5% risk-free rate), the target PBR is 2.2x, implying a year-end 2026 KOSPI target of 11,500 and year-end 2025 target of 11,700. The index is supported by earnings growth even without multiple expansion.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 40:30
Low PBR; governance reform catalyst
Hyundai Steel has a PBR of ~0.28x. The new anti-stock-suppression law (effective July) creates incentive for controlling shareholders to raise stock prices to avoid low valuation for inheritance tax. In Hyundai Motor Group's governance structure, Chairman Chung Eui-sun can use Hyundai Steel's holdings of Hyundai Mobis shares to restructure and boost Hyundai Steel's price.
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This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published June 07, 2026, features Hwang Su-wook, Park Se-ik discussing 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY, 004020.KS. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Hwang Su-wook, Park Se-ik  · Tickers: 005930.KS, 000660.KS, EWY, 004020.KS