Hwang Su-wook

Samsung Electronics and SK hynix are the only KOSPI stocks where earnings growth has matched or exceeded price increases, so their P/E ratios have compressed. The rest of the market has risen on pure multiple expansion without earnings support, making rotation unlikely. These two will continue to lead.

Based on Meritz's estimate of 2027 KOSPI net profit at 1,000 trillion won, ROE of 24%, COE assumptions (8% ERP, 4.5% risk-free rate), the target PBR is 2.2x, implying a year-end 2026 KOSPI target of 11,500 and year-end 2025 target of 11,700. The index is supported by earnings growth even without multiple expansion.

SK hynix derives ~30% of revenue from HBM, with 30-40% under LTA contracts with big tech. NVIDIA's upcoming 2025 HBM supply contract is expected to accept 70%+ price increases, forcing other customers to pay even more. This could push 2027 operating profit above 50 trillion won, well above consensus, due to broad price hikes across HBM generations.