If there was an oil supply glut, prices would be collapsing: Carlyle's Currie

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 09, 2026 at 19:21  |  4:24  |  CNBC
Speakers
Jeff Currie — CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group

Summary

CNBC's The Exchange talks commodities with Jeff Currie, chief strategy officer of energy pathways at Carlyle. Currie argues the oil supply-glut narrative is not real because prices are not collapsing, the curve is backwardated, inventories are not swelling on land, refinery margins are elevated, physical grades are strong, and positioning is heavily short. He says Venezuela's oil impact is modest but its geopolitical risk is large, a message gold is signaling. He sees potential oil upside from high geopolitical risk and record short positioning.

  • Jeff Currie says Venezuela's oil supply impact is modest but geopolitical risk is large.
  • Gold is testing new highs as a signal of heightened geopolitical risk.
  • Currie challenges the oil supply-glut narrative, citing backwardation, elevated refinery margins, and strong physical grades.
  • He notes record short positioning and resilient demand as upside risks for oil.
  • Floating storage and dark-fleet oil near China could be disrupted or seized.
  • Potential oil price upside is supported by high geopolitical risk and a large short base.
Ideas
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 0:31
Gold signals elevated geopolitical risk.
Currie points to gold testing new highs as the clearest signal that the Venezuela situation has raised geopolitical risk sharply. He says the fundamental oil impact from Venezuela is modest, but the geopolitical risk is very large, and that is what gold is telling you; this supports gold as a safe-haven/geopolitical-risk expression.
GLD MED
Jeff Currie CSO Energy Pathways, Carlyle Group 2:22
Oil upside from record shorts and geopolitics.
Currie argues the purported oil supply glut is not real: if it were, front-end prices would collapse, inventories would swell on land, and the curve would pay for storage. Instead, the market is backwardated, refinery margins are elevated, physical grades are relatively strong, demand is holding up, and there are 230 million barrels of shorts. With geopolitical risk high and much floating storage/dark-fleet oil positioned near China, he sees a recipe for potential oil price upside.
WTI HIGH
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This CNBC video, published January 09, 2026, features Jeff Currie discussing GLD, WTI. 2 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Jeff Currie  · Tickers: GLD, WTI