Chesley Morning Brief: Global Equity Valuation Check [26/01/19]

[체슬리모닝브리프] 글로벌 주식 벨류에이션 체크 [26/01/19]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 19, 2026 at 00:34  |  1:53:12  |  Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문)
Speakers
Seo Yeong — Analyst
Oh Woo-seok — Domestic Market Analyst
Choi Ho — Vice President
Park Se-ik — CEO, ex-Chief Strategist

Summary

Chesley Morning Brief for January 19, 2026 reviews global markets, crypto, US small-cap relative strength, and equity valuations. Speakers highlight AI hardware strength versus software competition, US power policy winners and losers, and a powerful Korean equity rally led by large caps and broad sector rotation. Specific investment ideas include Micron, NuScale, GE Vernova, Doosan Enerbility, Alteogen, Hyosung TNC, PharmaResearch, and China Southern Airlines. Bitcoin is range-bound with a key $100,000 level to watch.

  • US indices were little changed; semiconductors and small caps outperformed while AI software lagged.
  • Micron was highlighted on insider buying, tariff tailwinds, and DRAM capacity expansion.
  • US power policy boosts equipment suppliers but pressures existing generators.
  • Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500; liquidity and policy momentum support small caps.
  • Korean equities are in a strong bull phase with high trading volume and broad rotation.
  • Korean stock-specific ideas included Doosan Enerbility, Alteogen, HPSP/Park Systems, Hyosung TNC, and PharmaResearch.
  • Chinese market review highlighted weak large caps but a positive airline report on China Southern Airlines.
  • Bitcoin trades near $95k and needs to reclaim $100k to confirm upward momentum.
Ideas
Seo Yeong Analyst 7:15
Insider buying, tariffs favor Micron.
Micron rose after an insider bought about $7.8 million of stock at roughly $337, the first insider purchase since 2022. The Trump administration's tariff and domestic-production push makes Micron a relative beneficiary, and its acquisition of a Taiwan fab with existing cleanroom capacity should allow faster DRAM capacity expansion than building the New York fab from scratch.
Seo Yeong Analyst 10:00
AI software faces competition, weak growth.
AI software stocks are underperforming AI hardware and semiconductors because they have not shown accelerating growth from AI products. Anthropic's Claude Code lowers the barrier to software creation, intensifying competition. Within software, only companies that demonstrate accelerating growth are likely to differentiate.
Seo Yeong Analyst 13:11
Existing power generators face price cap.
The same US power policy caps revenue for existing power plants and increases new supply, reducing the scarcity-pricing upside for existing generators. Constellation Energy and Vistra fell sharply as the market repriced lower margin upside.
Seo Yeong Analyst 13:44
US power plant equipment orders rise.
The US Department of Energy announced about $15 billion in government funding for large new power plants and 15-year revenue guarantees. This is positive for equipment and technology suppliers such as NuScale Power and GE Vernova because it supports large orders, faster project progress, and more certain long-term revenue.
Seo Yeong Analyst 14:26
Oral Wegovy launch shows early demand.
Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy obesity pill recorded over 3,000 prescriptions in its first four days, showing strong initial demand. However, Eli Lilly is expected to launch a similar drug around April, so Novo's ability to capture early market share before competition intensifies is the key variable.
Oh Woo-seok Domestic Market Analyst 17:13
Bitcoin needs $100k to confirm.
Bitcoin is range-bound near $95,400. A reclaim of $100,000 would signal that the bounce is real, while failure to break $100,000 would raise the probability of a dead-cat bounce. Weekly ETF flows turned positive after about three months, but daily flows remain mixed and the Fear & Greed Index is neutral. Macro factors including yen strength and Fed chair speculation are influencing price.
Choi Ho Vice President 27:31
Small caps may continue leading.
Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P 500 by more than 5% in January, a rare occurrence since 1979 that has usually continued for the full year except during the 2021 bubble. Drivers include improved short-term liquidity, falling high-yield spreads, and policy momentum ahead of midterm elections. Small-cap strength is led by energy, quantum, nuclear, mobility, data-center IT, and beaten-down growth themes, though follow-through depends on earnings.
Choi Ho Vice President 59:56
Brokerages benefit from record trading volume.
Korean securities stocks are strong because market trading value has surged to around KRW 41 trillion on KOSPI and KRW 14 trillion on KOSDAQ, or about KRW 60 trillion including overseas and after-hours trading. Investor deposits remain above KRW 90 trillion and credit balances are rising, supporting brokerage earnings. Kiwoom Securities, Mirae Asset Securities, and Samsung Securities hit 52-week highs.
Choi Ho Vice President 71:43
Power grid spending drives Doosan Enerbility.
Foreign investors net bought more than KRW 400 billion of Doosan Enerbility after Trump urged Big Tech to expand power grid investment. The stock rose 5-6% as the policy comment reinforced demand for power infrastructure and nuclear/grid equipment.
Choi Ho Vice President 73:16
Foreign/institutional buying supports Samsung.
Samsung Electronics is the only Korean stock with simultaneous net buying by foreign and institutional investors. It is a KOSPI leader, and its global market cap is still well below TSMC's, suggesting room to close the gap as semiconductor leadership continues.
Choi Ho Vice President 73:23
Licensing deal hopes lift Alteogen.
Alteogen jumped about 10% after foreign and institutional investors simultaneously bought the stock. At the JPMorgan Healthcare Conference, the company reportedly discussed licensing with about 10 companies, and a technology transfer deal could be announced this week. This creates a near-term catalyst for the stock.
Choi Ho Vice President 75:46
TSMC capex boosts equipment suppliers.
TSMC's capex investment guidance beat consensus, driving strong gains in semiconductor equipment suppliers. HPSP rose 3.6% and Park Systems rose 5.7% as the capex outlook supports demand for Korean equipment and materials.
Choi Ho Vice President 76:34
Lithium price drop weakens battery chain.
Korean battery chain stocks such as LG Energy Solution, STI, POSCO Future M, and L&F were weak as lithium prices declined from Wednesday, reducing momentum for the group.
Choi Ho Vice President 80:47
Spandex cycle turn favors Hyosung TNC.
The spandex industry is showing signs of a cycle turn: Chinese supply consolidation reduced producers from 22 to about 10, no major new capacity is scheduled for 2026, utilization and inventory are improving, and price hikes are expected. Hyosung TNC is the global high-value spandex leader but its stock has lagged Chinese peers, trading at around 0.5x PBR, creating potential for re-rating as supply improves.
Choi Ho Vice President 92:34
Undervalued growth; Rejuran sales strong.
PharmaResearch's fourth-quarter results are expected to meet guidance with revenue around KRW 100 billion and operating profit around KRW 65 billion. Rejuran medical device and cosmetics sales are growing strongly, with 2026 revenue forecast to rise 28% to about KRW 700 billion. The stock trades around 18x earnings versus a prior 30x multiple despite intact growth, so valuation recovery is possible if results confirm the trend.
Choi Ho Vice President 104:18
Oil drop, high load factor lift airline.
A report on China Southern Airlines highlights third-quarter revenue growth, a record-high load factor near 87-88%, an 11% drop in oil prices, and yuan appreciation as positive drivers. Although the fourth quarter may be seasonally loss-making, the first quarter is expected to return to profit. The report forecasts 2025-2027 net profit growth and a target PBR of 3.5x, implying about 32% upside from last week's close.
Park Se-ik CEO, ex-Chief Strategist 110:03
Korean market strong; stay long.
The Korean market is in a powerful bull phase with broad sector rotation: semiconductors pause while autos, shipbuilding, defense, securities, and Chinese consumer names rise. KOSPI is up about 15% year-to-date, trading value, investor deposits, and credit balances are rising, and foreign/institutional flows are supportive. Park argues investors should stay long and not sell because the market keeps making new highs and selling risks missing further upside.
Up Next

This Chesley Investment Advisory (체슬리투자자문) video, published January 19, 2026, features Seo Yeong, Oh Woo-seok, Choi Ho, Park Se-ik discussing MU, AI software, CEG, VST, SMR, GEV, NVO, BTC, IWM, Korean securities sector, 034020.KS, 005930.KS, 196170.KQ, 403870.KQ, 140860.KQ, Korean battery chain, 298050.KS, 214450.KQ, ZNH, EWY. 17 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Seo Yeong, Oh Woo-seok, Choi Ho, Park Se-ik  · Tickers: MU, AI software, CEG, VST, SMR, GEV, NVO, BTC, IWM, Korean securities sector, 034020.KS, 005930.KS, 196170.KQ, 403870.KQ, 140860.KQ, Korean battery chain, 298050.KS, 214450.KQ, ZNH, EWY