Global Crisis Looms: Will Oil Run Out By July? | Doomberg

Summary

Doomberg explains why oil prices stayed calm during the Iran conflict, arguing that the Strait of Hormuz closure was less severe than feared because of Chinese stockpiling, hydrocarbon switching, and oil continuing to flow. He asserts that North America was never at risk of shortages and that oil will likely drift lower to pre-war levels barring a major escalation, while data-centre demand will push up US natural gas prices. The conversation also touches on LNG, helium, fertiliser, and China's energy resilience.

• Doomberg argues the market signals the Strait of Hormuz is effectively open, as WTI trades near $72–73
• China offset most of the 5–6 mb/d supply loss via stockpiles, coal-to-chemicals, and EV adoption
• The US and Canada are an integrated fortress with excess production; US tank-bottoms were never in danger
• Base case: oil drifts lower to pre-war $58–60 absent a major escalation
• Tail risk: a full re-escalation targeting Middle Eastern infrastructure could spike oil prices
• Data centres are the highest bidder for energy and will push up US natural gas prices
• LNG markets are well-behaved and approaching pre-war levels; Asia is outbidding Europe for cargoes
• China's all-of-the-above energy strategy and overbuilt capacity provided notable resilience