Trading the Fragmented World of 2026 | Systematic Investor | Ep.382

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 12, 2026 at 16:03  |  1:08:20  |  Top Traders Unplugged
Speakers
Richard Brennan — Co-Host, Systematic Investor
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen — Founder & Host, Top Traders Unplugged

Summary

In this Systematic Investor episode, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen and Richard Brennan open 2026 by discussing how a fragmented, regionalized world order may favor trend following because imbalances persist without coordinated policy rescue. They review 2025 performance—metals and gold strength, Japan leadership, and bond/currency/energy drags—and flag a record block trade in January Fed funds futures. The bulk of the conversation is a philosophical framework: backtests are not maps of the future, markets disclose sequentially, traders should respond to present structure rather than forecast, and over-optimization trades convexity for emotional comfort.

  • Richard Brennan argues deglobalization and spheres of influence create slower-moving imbalances that favor trend following.
  • He highlights 2025 as a concentrated year where metals, especially gold, did the heavy lifting, while bonds, currencies, and energy lagged.
  • Niels Kaastrup-Larsen notes a record 200,000-contract block trade in January Fed funds futures as unusual positioning.
  • The hosts debate timeframe diversification and ensemble models for trend-following systems.
  • Richard frames backtests as studies of the past, not maps of an unfinished future.
  • The conversation warns that over-optimization can hide fragility and sacrifice convexity for emotional comfort.
  • They conclude that process control, predetermined responses, and letting go of outcome attachment are central to resilient trading.
Ideas
Richard Brennan Co-Host, Systematic Investor 3:49
Fragmented world favors persistent trend following.
The shift from globalization to a fragmented, regionalized world order weakens coordinated central-bank intervention and lets imbalances persist, creating slow-moving trends rather than quickly smoothed shocks. Richard Brennan says this environment is exceptionally favorable for trend following, probably better than anything seen in years.
DBMF HIGH
Niels Kaastrup-Larsen Founder & Host, Top Traders Unplugged 12:50
Record Fed funds block trade worth watching.
A record block trade of 200,000 January Fed funds futures contracts, by far the largest ever recorded on the CME and more than double the prior record, signals unusually large positioning in short-term rate futures. Niels says it is probably not a classic trend follower and is a significant position worth monitoring.
January Fed funds futures MED
Richard Brennan Co-Host, Systematic Investor 15:50
Gold's clean persistent trend is still intact.
Gold was the standout metal in 2025 not through volatility or dramatic moves but through persistence; its trend remained technically clean all year and was still going. Metals broadly contributed heavily to the classic benchmark portfolio, with gold the key persistent driver.
GLD HIGH
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This Top Traders Unplugged video, published January 12, 2026, features Richard Brennan, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen discussing DBMF, January Fed funds futures, GLD. 3 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Richard Brennan, Niels Kaastrup-Larsen  · Tickers: DBMF, January Fed funds futures, GLD