Oil, Metals, and More Geopolitical Risk | Macro Mondays: Feb. 2, 2026

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  February 02, 2026 at 19:51  |  31:04  |  Real Vision
Speakers
Andreas Steno Larsen — Founder, Steno Research
Mikkel Rosenvold — Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association

Summary

Andreas Steno and Mikkel Rosenvold discuss the market impact of the latest ISM manufacturing beat, the historic silver crash, and rising geopolitical risk around US-Iran tensions and US-China decoupling. They highlight the underappreciated US capex cycle, strategic mineral stockpiling, rare-earth policy support, and possible scenarios for Iran, oil, and shipping. They also review the Kevin Warsh Fed nomination and its perceived dovish and liquidity-positive implications.

  • ISM manufacturing jumped to 52.6 with strong new orders, supporting the view of an underappreciated US capex and cyclical upswing.
  • Silver suffered a historic single-day crash after extreme positioning, forcing margin hikes and raising volatility across metals.
  • The US announced a strategic mineral stockpile to counter China, supporting the decoupling theme in US metals, manufacturing, and refining.
  • Copper is viewed as a likely stockpile beneficiary, while rare earths and MP Materials get attention for policy support and price-floor discussions.
  • US-Iran talks and possible strike scenarios are framed around oil, shipping risk, and Iran's role in Chinese oil imports.
  • Andreas says he is staying hands off the Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF after its rally and drawdown.
  • Kevin Warsh's Fed nomination is discussed as likely dovish and liquidity-positive, though without a clean named trade.
  • The hosts see Republican midterm incentives and Fed policy as supportive for risk assets.
Ideas
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 4:56
ISM capex upcycle lifts cyclical assets
ISM manufacturing jumped to 52.6 with new orders at 57.1, inventories still low, and the January 19 bonus depreciation window giving companies a tax-efficient reason to do capex. He sees this as a strong, underappreciated US cyclical comeback, and says historically ISM manufacturing is a key gauge of the investment cycle, with assets sensitive to capex and wages such as Russell, Bitcoin, equities, technology, and base metals tending to thrive when ISM rises.
IWM BTC SPY XLK DBB HIGH
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 12:11
Silver volatility makes risk/reward unattractive
Silver had a historic crash after a FOMO rally and extreme positioning, forcing exchanges to raise margins and triggering a broad volatility shock. With silver able to move 30% either way in days or weeks and risk-adjusted returns poor, he has no strong directional view after exiting in early January and prefers other niches.
SILVER HIGH
Mikkel Rosenvold Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association 14:25
US metals benefit from decoupling stockpile
A new $20.2B US strategic mineral stockpile to counter China directly reinforces the US-China decoupling theme. They have many model-portfolio bets in US metals, US manufacturing, and refining, and the policy could drive that part of the metals sector ex-silver.
XME US manufacturing sector XLE MED
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 14:57
Strategic stockpile likely includes copper
Details of the US strategic mineral stockpile are limited, but he would be surprised if it did not at least partially include copper. The initiative is another sign the US is trying to secure Western supply chains and support strategic metals demand as China weaponizes supply chains.
COPPER MED
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 15:04
MP Materials gains strategic policy support
Rare earths are in focus as the US tries to boost confidence in Operation Warp Speed. MP Materials received a Treasury stake and a price-floor deal for metals processing, and the administration may pursue Section 232 price floors across the space, providing policy support despite confusing Reuters reporting.
MP REMX MED
Mikkel Rosenvold Co-founder, Nordic Blockchain Association 21:52
Iran deal helps US oil companies
If the US and Iran reach a new nuclear deal or Iran is gradually reintegrated into Western markets, that could be very positive for US oil companies, analogous to the Venezuela situation, because US companies could gain access and help boost production. This is conditional on talks succeeding rather than a US strike.
US oil companies MED
Andreas Steno Larsen Founder, Steno Research 22:57
Tanker ETF rally is too late
The Breakwave Tanker Shipping ETF is the closest trade to the Iran conflict, civil unrest, Red Sea, and Strait of Hormuz risk-premium scenario. But after a large rally and a 10% drop since the open, he never got in, does not like buying now, and is staying hands off, especially given uncertainty about a possible Iran reintegration scenario and Chinese retaliation.
BWET HIGH
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This Real Vision video, published February 02, 2026, features Andreas Steno Larsen, Mikkel Rosenvold discussing IWM, BTC, SPY, XLK, DBB, SILVER, XME, US manufacturing sector, XLE, COPPER, MP, REMX, US oil companies, BWET. 7 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Andreas Steno Larsen, Mikkel Rosenvold  · Tickers: IWM, BTC, SPY, XLK, DBB, SILVER, XME, US manufacturing sector, XLE, COPPER, MP, REMX, US oil companies, BWET