US Pressure Complicates Semiconductor Industry Calculations; Will Samsung and SK hynix Adopt a Wise Strategy? | Son In-jun, Heungkuk Securities Semiconductor Analyst

Summary

Son In-jun, a semiconductor analyst at Heungkuk Securities, discusses U.S. tariff pressure on memory makers, the AI-driven memory upcycle, NAND demand from Nvidia's new ICMS layer, and the outlook for Samsung Electronics versus SK hynix. He argues tariff risk is likely overdone, DRAM and NAND shortages should persist, humanoid robots could become a new memory demand driver, and Samsung may outperform near term before SK hynix takes the lead after late January.

• U.S. officials threaten 100% tariffs on memory makers not producing in the U.S., but the analyst sees tariffs as unlikely because memory is essential and supply is tight.
• AI memory is presented as the strongest AI hardware area, with DRAM demand fulfillment around 50%, rising contract prices, and expanding margins.
• Humanoid robots are highlighted as a potential new memory demand driver due to much larger DRAM content than smartphones.
• Nvidia's ICMS SSD tier could add substantial NAND demand, pushing demand growth above supply growth.
• Samsung Electronics is favored near term on tariff-risk relief, HBM4 progress, foundry orders, and shareholder returns.
• SK hynix could regain leadership after late January on potential shareholder-return news and pure-memory valuation expansion.