Will the Fed Hike at Next Week's FOMC? Could That Actually Be Bullish for Stocks This Time? The AI Mega-Trend Is Not Over Despite Foreign Selling | Mirae Asset Asset Management Director Choi Chang-kyu

[Real Market Now] Is the Fed Rate Hike Coming at Next Week's FOMC? But Could It Actually Be Bullish for Stocks This Time / The AI Mega-Trend Isn't Over Yet Despite Foreign Selling | Mirae Asset Asset Management Director Choi Chang-kyu
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  September 13, 2026 at 11:00  |  41:11  |  815 Money Talk (815머니톡)
Speakers
Choi Chang-gyu — Director, NH Investment & Securities

Summary

Choi Chang-kyu reviewed US and Korean markets after high CPI/PPI, arguing that oil stabilization and AI efficiency read-throughs supported long-duration rates and AI infrastructure. He highlighted Oracle's strong backlog, enterprise AI software via Atlassian, AI platform monetization, new upside-income ETFs, and AI content in China. He also mapped won-strength winners and losers in Korea, discussed HD Hyundai Heavy Industries' data-center power angle, and analyzed foreign futures/options positioning. His main market implication was a constructive but capped Korean equity setup, with FOMC guidance as the key near-term event.

  • US CPI/PPI were high, but oil stabilization and stable long-term yields supported risk assets.
  • DeepSeek efficiency was interpreted as improving AI ROI and expanding total AI infrastructure demand.
  • Oracle's RPO/OCI growth eased capex concerns; Atlassian and AI platform names were highlighted.
  • New US ETFs reflect demand for upside participation with income in semiconductors and Nasdaq.
  • Won strength would favor Korean utilities, transport, chemicals, and steel, while hurting autos and shipbuilding.
  • HD Hyundai Heavy Industries gained on ship-engine/data-center power capex, with technical upside potential.
  • Foreign futures favor SK hynix over Samsung, while options imply capped KOSPI 200 upside.
  • Fed hike is mostly priced; a hike followed by a hold signal could remove uncertainty and support stocks.
Ideas
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 3:25
Efficiency expands, not shrinks, AI infrastructure.
DeepSeek's efficiency innovation initially hit memory/storage sentiment, but the market increasingly interpreted lower AI inference costs as improving AI investment efficiency and data-center ROI, expanding total AI usage rather than reducing hardware demand. Oracle said AI training/inference demand exceeds supply, Microsoft plans to triple data-center capacity by 2032, and server/network names such as Dell, HPE, Supermicro, and Arista surged. This supports the global AI infrastructure and server/network hardware theme.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 4:18
Korean stocks favored this week.
Fed rate-hike probability was near 90%, so a hike was largely priced. If the Fed hikes and then signals a holding stance, the removal of uncertainty could be positive for equities and the market could rise. The week's central bank events include FOMC, BOE, and BOJ, but the directional equity setup hinges on the Fed's post-hike guidance.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 4:36
Korean chip demand remains positive.
The same AI data-center strength and stable long-term rates are positive for Korean semiconductor shares. DeepSeek-related memory worries had already been partly priced in, and won strength should not be used as a reason to sell Korean chip exporters because their FX beta is near neutral; DRAM/HBM prices, AI demand, the global semiconductor cycle, and foreign flows are more important drivers.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 4:44
Korean AI power infrastructure benefits.
The AI data-center strength and stable-rate backdrop should also benefit Korean power equipment and AI-infrastructure-related shares, according to the speaker's cross-market read-through from the US session.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 5:42
AI platform monetization broadening beyond chips.
US retail investors rotated from traditional semiconductors toward AI platform and service-monetization companies, with Alphabet and Meta among top net buys. The speaker's thesis is that AI investment competition is broadening beyond GPUs and memory toward platform companies that can monetize AI services; later model review supports Meta's low-cost coding model and Alphabet's integrated Gemini ecosystem.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 8:54
Atlassian is an AI enterprise platform play.
Atlassian is mispriced as a simple collaboration-software company but is becoming an enterprise AI platform. Its Jira, Confluence, and JSM installed base of over 350,000 customers and more than 85% of Fortune 500 companies as paid customers gives a powerful upsell channel for Rovo, an enterprise AI search/agent platform using internal data. The cloud transition increases recurring revenue, and LTM revenue is $6.6 billion, up 26% year over year. Snowflake's AI software spending evidence supports expanding enterprise AI application spend after infrastructure investment.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 12:11
Oracle backlog offsets AI capex fears.
Oracle's results showed AI demand is so strong that financing and capex are the concern, not weak demand. The stock fell in regular trading on worries over data-center capex and free cash flow, but reversed after hours as RPO reached $664 billion with a $209 billion year-over-year increase, new AI contracts exceeded $30 billion, revenue rose 30% to $19.3 billion, and OCI revenue grew 121% year over year. The large backlog improves multi-year cloud revenue visibility even if capex remains heavy.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 19:10
Semiconductor income ETF bets on upside.
ISM is a semiconductor income ETF that holds semiconductor, equipment, and semiconductor ETF exposure while buying in-the-money calls and selling puts/put spreads, with Treasuries used as collateral. Unlike covered-call income ETFs that cap upside, it aims to participate in semiconductor upside while earning income, making it attractive in slow or range-bound semiconductor gains but vulnerable in sharp declines. Its launch reflects US investor demand for upside exposure to semiconductors and AI infrastructure with income.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 21:56
Nasdaq income ETF bets moderate upside.
A Nasdaq 100 Premium Income ETF applies a similar upside-participation income structure to the Nasdaq 100, investing in Nasdaq-100 stocks or QQQ and using in-the-money calls plus short puts/put spreads to generate income while betting on moderate Nasdaq gains. The product's appearance suggests investors want to stay long Nasdaq but are positioned for weak or range-bound upside rather than a violent melt-up.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 23:27
AI drama cost cuts need proof.
Mango Excellent Media is a Chinese media company using generative AI to produce long-form dramas. Its AI-made content moved into prime-time programming, shifting AI video beyond short ads or clips into full drama production. The investment case is not novelty but potential reduction in production cost and time and conversion into advertising/subscription revenue; however, the stock is volatile and the cost and monetization benefits still need confirmation, so it is more a watchlist setup.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 26:19
Won strength favors utilities, transport, chemicals.
If the won strengthens, Korean utilities and transport are the clearest beneficiaries, based on cited FX betas of about -0.5, with chemicals (-0.34) and steel (-0.31) also advantaged. Airlines benefit from lower fuel, aircraft lease, maintenance, and foreign-currency debt burdens. Representative names cited are KEPCO, Korean Air, Lotte Fine Chemical, and POSCO Holdings.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 28:45
Won strength hurts autos and shipbuilding.
If the won strengthens, Korean autos and shipbuilding are the main damaged sectors, with cited representative names including HD Hyundai, Hyundai Mobis, LG Electronics, and Samsung Fire & Marine. The speaker presents these as sectors and stocks likely to suffer from won appreciation.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 32:10
Foreign futures show capped Korean upside.
After September expiry, foreign futures rollover selling was only about 8,000 contracts, not alarming versus 26,000 in June, but foreigners liquidated long positions and rolled short, showing a hedging bias. Their estimated options position implies a weak upward path capped around 1,200 on KOSPI 200 futures rather than a large rally. The key is whether foreign selling expands or flips to net buying.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 33:06
Ship engines pivot to data-center power.
HD Hyundai Heavy Industries rose 5.6% on plans to convert ship engines into data-center-type power-generation equipment, creating a new AI/data-center power capex angle rather than pure shipbuilding demand. The chart shows an uptrend and a double bottom after a July drop, with potential upside toward the 200-day moving average. The speaker suggests heavy-industry exposure may fit better than pure shipbuilding because the specific momentum is engines and data-center power.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 37:51
Foreign futures favor SK hynix.
Foreign futures positioning suggests foreigners prefer SK hynix over Samsung Electronics within Korean semiconductors. Before expiry they sold large amounts of Samsung and SK hynix futures, but after the new week SK hynix saw net buying while Samsung saw net selling, indicating a relative preference for SK hynix.
Choi Chang-gyu Director, NH Investment & Securities 37:51
Foreign futures favor SK hynix.
Foreign futures positioning suggests foreigners prefer SK hynix over Samsung Electronics within Korean semiconductors. Before expiry they sold large amounts of Samsung and SK hynix futures, but after the new week SK hynix saw net buying while Samsung saw net selling, indicating a relative preference for SK hynix.
Up Next

This 815 Money Talk (815머니톡) video, published September 13, 2026, features Choi Chang-gyu discussing DELL, HPE, SMCI, ANET, EWY, Korean semiconductor sector, Korean Power Equipment Sector, Korean AI infrastructure sector, GOOGL, META, TEAM, ORCL, ISM, Nasdaq 100 Premium Income ETF, MANGO, 003490.KS, 015760.KS, 004000.KS, 005490.KS, 267250.KS, 000810.KS, 012330.KS, 066570.KS, KOSPI 200 futures, 329180.KS, 000660.KS, 005930.KS. 16 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Choi Chang-gyu  · Tickers: DELL, HPE, SMCI, ANET, EWY, Korean semiconductor sector, Korean Power Equipment Sector, Korean AI infrastructure sector, GOOGL, META, TEAM, ORCL, ISM, Nasdaq 100 Premium Income ETF, MANGO, 003490.KS, 015760.KS, 004000.KS, 005490.KS, 267250.KS, 000810.KS, 012330.KS, 066570.KS, KOSPI 200 futures, 329180.KS, 000660.KS, 005930.KS