Name: Fed Under Attack; What's Next For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold As Bull Market 'Ends' | Gareth Soloway
Uploaded: 2025-09-18T01:44:01+00:00
Duration: 2383 s

Speakers

Gareth Soloway — President of Verified Investing

Summary

Gareth Soloway reviews the Fed's 25bp rate cut and Powell's cautious tone, arguing the cut comes as the labor market weakens and tariff-related inflation pressures linger, creating stagflation and recession risk. He sees late-cycle signals—record margin debt, meme speculation, credit-card delinquencies, and housing weakness—and says he is short the broad market and tech while long volatility and Russell 2000. He favors defensive dividend stocks and Brazil, expects more dollar weakness and long-end yield pressure, and would wait for pullbacks to buy gold, silver, and Bitcoin.

Fed cut rates 25bp; Powell said a 50bp cut was not widely considered.
Gareth sees stagflation/recession risk as tariffs hit jobs and consumers weaken.
He flags end-of-bull signals including record margin debt, FOMO, and high credit-card delinquencies.
He is short the S&P 500/tech, long VXX volatility, long Russell 2000, and holds defensive dividend stocks.
He likes Brazil EWZ as rotation away from US assets and would step back from China/Alibaba after rallies.
He sees DXY breakdown risk and expects higher long-end yields due to Fed independence erosion.
Bitcoin's $117k trendline is key; above targets $126k-$150k, below risks sub-$100k.
He likes gold and silver long-term but would wait for pullbacks, and wants to accumulate Bitcoin on pullbacks.

Ideas

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 17:48

Fed-cut rally fades; short S&P 500

The Fed cut into a weakening labor market and tariff-driven inflation pressures, so the cut is not a clean bullish catalyst. Historically, when the Fed begins cutting after an expansion, stocks often fall because the cut is already priced and investors worry the Fed is behind the curve. Late-cycle warning signs—record margin debt, meme speculation, credit-card delinquencies near 2008/2009 highs, housing already topped, and FOMO/hedge-fund catch-up—point to the end of the bull market. Technically, the S&P 500 is trapped in a wedge and at trendline resistance, so he is shorting the market for downside.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 18:13

Long VXX; volatility too cheap

Volatility is too low with the VIX around or below 15, making protection cheap. He is long VXX as a short-term trading vehicle that tracks the VIX and should rise if fear increases and the market sells off.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 18:34

Defensive dividends: Pfizer, Keurig Dr Pepper

In a late-cycle/weak market, he favors defensive US dividend payers like Pfizer and Keurig Dr Pepper that are near 52-week lows, trade around 12-13x forward PE, and pay 4-7% dividends. The dividend cushions downside while the low valuation limits risk, and these are among the only US names he is long.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 20:17

QQQ at resistance; short tech

The QQQ is at a parallel channel resistance that has capped multiple highs since 2024, and each test has been followed by pullbacks. He sees more downside risk than upside in tech and says he is generally short tech, with a stop-out plan if it breaks above the channel.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 24:19

Bitcoin: $117k pivot; buy pullbacks

Bitcoin is below a long-term trendline around $117k. If it breaks and holds above, he targets $126k-$150k and new highs; if it fails, he warns of a larger correction below $100k. Longer-term, he views Bitcoin as digital gold with adoption lowering volatility and wants to load up again on a pullback.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 31:28

Long-end yields rise; short long bonds

Fed independence erosion and massive US expenditures/interest payments may make foreign buyers demand higher yields. The Fed controls the short end but not the long end, so long-end interest rates are likely to rise, pressuring long-dated Treasury prices.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 31:44

Dollar breaks support; DXY down

The DXY has broken major support that held since 2022 and is now testing a 2008 trendline zone. Fed independence erosion, tariffs, and other countries diversifying away from dollars and US debt are undermining reserve status. If DXY breaks 96-94, he sees significant further downside toward the 70s.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 35:17

Long Russell 2000 as laggard

As interest rates come down, the Russell 2000 is the laggard and should have upside. He is long Russell/IWM-type exposure.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 35:27

Step back from China after rally

He was long China and expected money flow into it, but China-related names and Alibaba have already had huge rallies. He would step back from them now rather than chase.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 35:41

Long Brazil EWZ on US-dollar erosion

As the dollar erodes and confidence in the US system fades, investors should look for other places to put money. He likes Brazil via EWZ as a rotation destination.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 36:18

Gold: wait for pullback to buy

He is not buying gold at current highs, but will buy on a strong pullback. Longer-term, Fed independence erosion, dollar weakness, and reserve diversification support gold as a store of value that does not rely on institutional trust.

Gareth Soloway President of Verified Investing 36:22

Silver liked but wait for pullback

He continues to like silver long-term, but it has already had too much of a run. He would wait for a pullback before buying, similar to gold.

Fed Under Attack; What's Next For Stocks, Bitcoin, Gold As Bull Market 'Ends' | Gareth Soloway

Summary

Ideas

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