'The Chinese Won': Steven Rattner on Lessons From Trump's Trade War

Summary

Steven Rattner explains that tariffs have not revitalized U.S. manufacturing or significantly reduced the deficit. He argues that China has emerged as the winner of the trade war because of its self-sufficiency and control over critical goods like rare-earth minerals.

• The Supreme Court struck down broad tariffs, but Trump is using other trade laws, causing ongoing uncertainty that markets mostly shrug off.
• Factory construction peaked during the Biden administration and has declined under Trump; data center construction is up but not enough to offset the drop.
• Tariff revenue is negligible for the U.S. deficit and the government is now refunding some tariffs deemed illegal.
• China is nearly self-sufficient and supplies irreplaceable goods like rare-earth minerals, giving it more leverage in the trade war.
• Rattner says the lesson of the last two and a half years is that 'the Chinese won.'
• He treats tariff exposure as a checklist item when investing, assessing whether a company could be hurt by tariffs on components or overseas operations.