How El Niño Threatens India’s Economy and Food Prices

Summary

Former Indian Agriculture Secretary Siraj Hussain discusses the impact of El Niño-driven monsoon deficits on India's crop output, food inflation, and rural incomes. He warns that production of pulses, oilseeds, and maize will fall, pushing up food inflation, and that rural incomes will take a hit. He also addresses ethanol blending policy, fertilizer supply, and the limited scope for agricultural reforms.

• Wide monsoon deficiency affecting 60% of districts, with especially poor rains in Bihar and Maharashtra.
• Lower production expected for pulses, oilseeds, maize, and cotton, while rice and wheat buffer stocks remain comfortable.
• Consumer food inflation likely to exceed 6-7%, driven by pulses and oilseeds.
• Rural incomes and the rural economy will be negatively impacted, particularly hurting small farmers and laborers.
• Government's allocation of rice for ethanol needs revisiting; maize-cultivation shift may worsen food security.
• Fertilizer supplies handled well despite the global crisis; no large-scale disruption expected for rabi crops.
• Major agricultural reforms unlikely before upcoming state elections due to lack of political space.