Fed Keeps Rates Steady | Warsh Holds First Press Conference as Chair

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  June 17, 2026 at 19:53  |  2:14:35  |  Bloomberg Markets
Speakers
Bob Michele — CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management
Kate Moore — Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock
Jeffrey Rosenberg — Senior Portfolio Manager, BlackRock
Kevin Warsh — Federal Reserve Chairman

Summary

The Federal Reserve under new Chair Kevin Warsh holds rates steady at 3.5%-3.75%, but the dot plot reveals a hawkish tilt with nine members projecting rate hikes this year. The statement drops forward guidance and emphasizes a commitment to deliver price stability. Warsh announces five task forces to review communications, balance sheet, data, productivity/AI, and inflation frameworks. Markets react with a sharp selloff in equities and a flattening yield curve as the 2-year yield spikes. Post-meeting guests offer investment views favoring long-dated bonds, equities over credit, and AI-driven equity outperformance while avoiding duration.

  • Fed holds rates at 3.5%-3.75%, with nine FOMC participants projecting rate hikes this year.
  • Statement shortened, easing bias removed, and commitment to price stability underscored.
  • Chair Warsh does not submit a dot, signaling potential overhaul of communications and dot plot.
  • Five task forces announced to review communications, balance sheet, data, productivity/AI, and inflation frameworks.
  • Market reaction: equities fall, 2-year yield spikes 15bp, curve flattens dramatically.
  • Bob Michael (JPMorgan) argues a hawkish Fed supports long-dated Treasuries.
  • Kate Moore (Citi) prefers equities over credit and stays underweight duration amid persistent inflation.
  • Jeffrey Rosenberg (BlackRock) sees AI capex and earnings driving equities regardless of Fed tightening.
Ideas
Bob Michele CIO and Head of Global Fixed Income, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 45:17
Hawkish Fed supports long-dated bonds.
A hawkish Federal Reserve that reaffirms its commitment to price stability will anchor inflation expectations and create support for the long end of the Treasury market, making long-dated bonds attractive.
TLT HIGH
Kate Moore Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock 115:33
Stay underweight duration.
Inflation is expected to remain persistent and broader than many anticipate, making it premature to extend duration in portfolios; yields are likely to stay elevated.
US Long-dated Treasuries MED
Kate Moore Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock 116:07
Prefer equities over credit.
Equity valuations have improved relative to credit, as earnings growth has outpaced price declines while credit remains near 15-year valuation highs. Therefore, risk asset exposure should be tilted toward equities over credit, with selectivity in credit.
SPY MED
Kate Moore Head of Thematic Strategy, BlackRock 116:07
Prefer equities over credit.
Equity valuations have improved relative to credit, as earnings growth has outpaced price declines while credit remains near 15-year valuation highs. Therefore, risk asset exposure should be tilted toward equities over credit, with selectivity in credit.
US High Yield Credit MED
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This Bloomberg Markets video, published June 17, 2026, features Bob Michele, Kate Moore discussing TLT, US Long-dated Treasuries, SPY, US High Yield Credit. 4 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Bob Michele, Kate Moore  · Tickers: TLT, US Long-dated Treasuries, SPY, US High Yield Credit