Not expecting oil prices to have a big impact on inflation, says Neuberger Berman's Joe Amato
Speakers
Joe Kernen — Anchor, CNBC
— CNBC Squawk Box co-anchor
Summary
- Joe Amato believes the current geopolitical conflict (Iran) will likely be short-lived, though he acknowledges the risk of energy price spikes given 20% of global energy flows through the Strait.
- He argues against a broad credit default cycle, suggesting that current anxiety in high-yield markets is disconnected from the sound economic fundamentals.
- Neuberger Berman remains overweight equities, forecasting low double-digit earnings growth for 2026. Amato believes market gains will be driven by earnings rather than multiple expansion.
Trade Ideas
Amato notes that the "main transmission mechanism" for Middle East violence is energy prices, highlighting that 20% of the world's energy flows through the Strait. He observes "continued upward pressure on oil and natural gas prices." While Amato hopes the conflict is short-lived, the immediate market reaction is a risk premium spike in energy. If the conflict extends even slightly, the supply choke point becomes the primary driver of price appreciation. LONG (Short-term/Hedge). Energy acts as a hedge against the geopolitical volatility dampening other sectors. Rapid de-escalation of the conflict could cause risk premia to vanish quickly, dropping prices.
Joseph Amato
Neuberger Berman
Amato states they are "overweight equities" because the global economy is picking up and he expects "earnings in the US to grow in the low double digits" in 2026. He explicitly argues that valuation multiples will not expand further. Therefore, the upside in the S&P 500 is mathematically derived entirely from the underlying earnings growth. If earnings grow ~10-12%, the index should appreciate similarly. LONG. A fundamental bet on corporate execution and nominal growth rather than sentiment. If inflation from energy shocks persists, it could compress margins, threatening the earnings growth thesis.
Joseph Amato
Neuberger Berman
When asked about stress in high-yield indices, Amato says, "We don't see the conditions that would suggest a big default cycle." He believes the current sell-off is just "reflecting some of the anxiety." If the market is pricing in a default wave (high spreads/lower prices) but the economic reality is "sound," then high-yield bonds are currently mispriced. Investors can capture higher yields without the realized default risk the market fears. LONG. Buying the dip in credit caused by geopolitical fear rather than structural weakness. An "idiosyncratic credit situation" turning into a systemic issue, or a recession triggered by prolonged high rates.
