Dario Perkins on Real Cycle Risks & When the Macro Consensus Gets It Wrong | Global Macro | Ep.95

Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 28, 2026 at 16:09  |  1:03:41  |  Top Traders Unplugged
Speakers
Dario Perkins — MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard

Summary

Dario Perkins argues the macro consensus is too pessimistic and too focused on a K-shaped US economy. He expects policy stimulus in the US, Europe, and China to revive global growth and support equities, but warns that overheating and supply-side damage could reignite inflation and end the cycle later. He is negative on the dollar, expects term premium and bond yields to rise, and sees positive stories in Europe, Germany, Japan, China, and European defense spending.

  • Dario Perkins is bullish on global growth and equities over the next six months.
  • He expects US, European, and Chinese policy stimulus to surprise consensus.
  • He warns supply-side damage and hot policy could revive inflation later.
  • He sees term premium and bond yields rising, making bonds poorer equity hedges.
  • He is dollar negative as global investors hedge US exposure.
  • He is positive on Europe, Germany, Japan normalization, and China stimulus.
  • He sees European defense spending as a growth catalyst for France and the UK.
  • He dismisses AI productivity and labor-market stall-speed narratives.
Ideas
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 14:06
Tariff retreat supports US equities.
Dario expects Trump to back down from tariff threats, producing the TACO trade, and expects that tariff retreat to be positive for US equities.
SPY MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 15:33
Global investors hedge dollar exposure.
Global investors are nervous about US policy competence and dollar exposure; they are not dumping dollar assets outright but are starting to hedge dollar exposure, which is dollar negative, especially as non-US markets offer alternatives.
USD MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 39:51
Term premium rise pushes yields higher.
Dario sees a secular turning point in yields after COVID; term premium is likely to rise over time because of larger fiscal deficits, more activist government, negative supply shocks, and doubts about Fed independence, all of which reduce bonds' equity-hedge property. He can see another 100bp rise in term premium pushing the whole curve higher.
TLT HIGH
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 46:31
Japan normalization is bullish.
Dario views Japan's exit from its 30-year deflationary trap as bullish normalization; mild wage-price dynamics are healthy, demographic aging is not deflationary, and the BoJ can cautiously push rates higher without wanting a sharp yen appreciation.
EWJ MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 47:10
BoJ normalization lifts JGB yields.
The deflationary psychology in Japan is gone; demographics are no longer deflationary and the demographic inflection is pushing JGB yields higher even as the BoJ normalizes cautiously.
Japanese government bonds MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 48:28
German fiscal stimulus boosts growth.
Germany is undertaking roughly 2% of GDP in fiscal easing against spare capacity, so the stimulus should feed growth rather than inflation and should support Germany and its European trading partners.
EWG MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 49:41
Europe macro surprise is positive.
Dario thinks investors remain too bearish on Europe; the post-COVID shocks have unwound, the labor market is stronger, wages are outpacing prices, the ECB has cut to neutral, credit and construction are turning, and German fiscal stimulus should spill over to France, Italy, the UK, and the rest of Europe.
VGK HIGH
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 53:43
Defense spending boosts European industry.
Europe's defense-spending push can recreate a US-style vibrant defense industry with high-quality manufacturing, science, engineering, and technology breakthroughs, acting as a growth catalyst. France and the UK benefit most because their growth stories and consensus expectations are weak.
European defense sector EWQ EWU HIGH
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 59:27
China stimulus may surprise consensus.
Dario sees growing pressure for China to restimulate its economy and thinks the consensus has given up on Chinese stimulus; authorities are likely willing to spend more, not in 2010s-sized splurges, creating room for positive growth surprises.
FXI MED
Dario Perkins MD of Global Macro, TS Lombard 61:32
Policy stimulus supports global equities.
Dario is optimistic on global stock markets over the next six months because policy stimulus in the US, Europe, and China should revive growth, the bottom of the K-shaped economy should recover, and the consensus is underestimating that stimulus; he still sees overheating ending the cycle later.
VT HIGH
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This Top Traders Unplugged video, published January 28, 2026, features Dario Perkins discussing SPY, USD, TLT, EWJ, Japanese government bonds, EWG, VGK, European defense sector, EWQ, EWU, FXI, VT. 10 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Dario Perkins  · Tickers: SPY, USD, TLT, EWJ, Japanese government bonds, EWG, VGK, European defense sector, EWQ, EWU, FXI, VT