Bond Market Weathers Warsh Hawkish Hint: 3-Minutes MLIV

Summary

The market is optimistic on the Iran ceasefire extension, with stocks holding and oil around $100. Inflation concerns grow but are overlooked. Treasury market calm helps credit and equities.

• Iran ceasefire extension leads to market optimism.
• Stocks remain resilient despite inflation data.
• UK CPI came in sticky, companies raising prices.
• Kevin Warsh seen as hawkish at Senate hearing.
• Treasury implied volatility falling, yields stable.
• Calm Treasury market helps credit outperform.
• Equities boosted by Treasury stability.
• Risk of wake-up moment if oil supply doesn't resume.