The semiconductor stock rally is 'half over': how long can it rise? | Kim Rok-ho, Senior Research Fellow, Corporate Analysis Team, Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Kim Rok-ho of Hana Securities discusses Samsung Electronics and SK hynix earnings, the memory semiconductor upcycle, and whether the rally is halfway over. He argues the memory cycle is mid-to-late rather than just beginning, supported by strong real earnings, while flagging DRAM prices, hyperscaler capex, and export data as key peak indicators. He presents target prices for Samsung Electronics and SK hynix and views Samsung's foundry turnaround as mainly a 2028 story. He also notes Nvidia's strong AI ecosystem but a gross-margin-peak dilemma that has capped its stock.

• Samsung Electronics and SK hynix reported strong memory-driven earnings, with record or near-record operating margins.
• The guest estimates 2026 operating profit of 168 trillion won for Samsung Electronics, including 160 trillion won from memory, and 134 trillion won for SK hynix.
• He views the memory upcycle as mid-to-late stage, not the start, and sees the rally as earnings-backed rather than purely valuation-driven.
• Key peak-risk indicators include DRAM prices, hyperscaler capex, and Korean 10-day export data.
• HBM4 supply to Nvidia's Rubin and Samsung's HBM catch-up are important competitive dynamics.
• Samsung's foundry business shows order momentum from Tesla, Qualcomm, and Chinese customers, but meaningful turnaround is expected around 2028.
• Target prices cited are 222,000 won for Samsung Electronics and 1,300,000 won for SK hynix.
• Nvidia's stock has lagged despite strong fundamentals, illustrating a gross-margin-peak dilemma for semiconductor leaders.