Commodities will occupy a greater place in asset allocation, says Strategas' Jason Trennert
Speakers
Jason Trennert
— Chairman and CEO, Strategas Research Partners
Summary
Jason Trennert of Strategas Research Partners discusses his market outlook, highlighting commodities as a major allocation theme due to resource nationalism and under-exposure among pensions and endowments. He is bullish on the S&P 500 with a roughly 7500 target, while acknowledging a possible 10-15% correction. He also explains why he is investing in prediction-market beneficiaries despite disliking the gamification of markets, and flags robust AI capital spending with potential downward surprises.
- Jason Trennert says commodities should gain a greater place in asset allocation.
- He cites resource nationalism and low pension/endowment exposure as commodity drivers.
- He expects the S&P 500 around 7500, with risk to the upside.
- He sees a potential 10-15% S&P 500 correction along the way.
- He is playing the gamification and prediction-market trend through Robinhood, CME, ICE, and Flutter.
- He dislikes the blending of gambling and investing but says the trend is happening.
- He views AI technology and capital spending as robust but expects downward surprises.
Ideas
Commodities will gain greater allocation share.
Trennert says commodities will occupy a much greater place in asset allocation because foundations, pensions, and endowments are materially under-exposed, and resource nationalism across countries such as Venezuela, China, Russia, and the U.S. is a durable structural driver.
Owning prediction-market beneficiaries despite disliking trend.
As an investment theme, Trennert is playing the gamification of markets and prediction markets despite disliking the trend; he owns Robinhood, CME, ICE, and Flutter because these exchanges and platforms are getting into prediction markets, tying their growth to the blending of gambling and investing.
S&P 500 target 7500, upside risk.
Trennert expects the S&P 500 to reach roughly 7500 and says the risk to his forecast is to the upside, largely because profit growth estimates are around 15% in a rip-roaring bull market.
