Venezuela, Rising Anxiety? Will It Hold Back the Early-Year Market? 2026 U.S. Stock Investing: 'Growth Stocks + Value Stocks' Together | Hana Securities Research Center Global Investment Analysis Head Lee Jae-man

베네수엘라, 불안감 증폭? 연초 시장의 발목잡나? 26년 미국주식 투자 '성장주+가치주' 함께 | 하나증권 리서치센터 글로벌투자분석실 이재만 실장 [글로벌 인터뷰]
Watch on YouTube ↗  |  January 04, 2026 at 22:37  |  42:57  |  3PRO TV (삼프로TV)
Speakers
Lee Jaeman — Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center

Summary

Lee Jae-man, Head of Global Investment Analysis at Hana Securities Research Center, discusses how Venezuela-related geopolitical headlines and the U.S.-China rivalry affect markets. He argues that U.S. growth is led by AI capex while China's growth axis is consumption, with Korea benefiting as an exporter. He expects U.S. equities to rise around 12% in 2026, with both growth and value participating, and names U.S. and Korean value candidates based on forward P/E compression.

  • Venezuela risk is seen as short-term with limited impact on stocks, oil, gold, and the dollar.
  • U.S. growth is driven by AI investment while China's growth increasingly depends on consumption.
  • Korea benefits from U.S.-China trade tensions and from both U.S. capex and China consumption.
  • Semiconductor leadership remains tied to DRAM prices and tight supply.
  • The 2026 S&P 500 return is expected around 12%, with balanced growth and value participation.
  • The value screen focuses on companies whose forward P/E can fall sharply on earnings growth.
  • U.S. value candidates include Microsoft, NVIDIA, Tesla, Netflix, GE Vernova, software, financials, and healthcare names.
  • Korean value candidates include Samsung Electronics, Samsung Biologics, shipbuilders/defense, Korea Investment Holdings, S-Oil, and LS.
Ideas
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 3:22
Semiconductors remain 2026 market leaders.
Semiconductor stocks remain the 2026 market leadership because DRAM prices keep rising, indicating solid demand and increasing supply-shortage risk; the speaker expects this leadership to persist.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 5:10
US dollar weakness likely continues.
The Fed's inflation assessment and rate-cut stance imply no inflation pressure, so medium- to long-term U.S. dollar weakness is likely to continue and affect foreign flows into equities.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 6:13
China consumption is new growth axis.
China's growth axis has shifted toward consumption; consumption-related data and new orders lead, government fiscal policy is focused on consumption, and first-quarter policy expectations from the NPC should support the theme.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 6:13
US AI capex drives growth.
U.S. growth remains led by investment, especially AI capex; CAPEX leading indicators have entered expansion, and software, media, retail, transportation, and auto parts are the main investment-leading sectors, dominated by M7 companies.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 8:40
Korea exports benefit from US-China rift.
U.S.-China trade conflict has reduced bilateral trade, but Korea's exports to both countries have grown, especially semiconductors, because Korean technology and AI semiconductor supply are indispensable; this time Korea should benefit more than in 2018.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 12:42
Value stocks set to outperform growth.
In years when the S&P 500 returns less than 15%, value stocks typically outperform growth; with 2026 expected around 12%, value deserves equal portfolio weight, especially companies whose forward P/E can fall sharply on earnings growth.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 19:31
Korean suppliers benefit from US capex.
When U.S. investment-leading sectors increase capex, Korean energy machinery, auto parts, semiconductors, secondary battery, and IT hardware companies should see the fastest revenue estimate upgrades.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 19:31
Korean suppliers benefit from US capex.
If China's consumption and related sectors improve, Korean semiconductors, energy, IT hardware, machinery, healthcare, securities, and chemicals should see faster earnings upgrades; China's first-quarter policy expectations add support.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 20:24
Korean sectors benefit from China consumption.
The speaker expects USD/KRW to fall rather than break above 1,500 as government intervention and medium-term dollar weakness support the won; won strength lowers import costs and improves margins for Korean healthcare, utilities, semiconductors, chemicals, shipbuilding, display, banks, and staples.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 25:54
S&P 500 seen up about 12%.
S&P 500 EPS growth of around 15% in 2026 translates to an expected annual price return of about 12%, below the 15% threshold, implying a positive but more balanced market rather than a growth-only melt-up.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 28:56
NVIDIA value via P/E compression.
NVIDIA's 2026 earnings growth is expected to reduce P/E from about 62x to 40x; despite a high absolute multiple, that sharp compression makes it a value-style candidate.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 29:33
Microsoft offers value via P/E compression.
Microsoft should see 2026 revenue growth around 17% and net income growth around 19%, cutting P/E from about 36x to 30x; it fits both growth and value, and a quiet 2025 leaves room for renewed interest.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 29:51
Tesla value via multiple compression.
Tesla's expected 2026 net income growth of about 36% could cut P/E from about 270x to 200x, fitting the same value-style multiple-compression framework.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 32:12
Healthcare value names fit screen.
U.S. healthcare names such as Eli Lilly and Boston Scientific fit the value screen because their earnings growth can compress multiples, even though they are not classic low-PER value stocks.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 32:19
GE Vernova value on earnings growth.
GE Vernova is an industrial value candidate with expected 2026 net income growth of about 77%, making its valuation more attractive despite last year's rally.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 32:38
Netflix value via P/E compression.
Netflix is a media value candidate because investment-driven earnings growth should be among the strongest, potentially cutting its multiple from about 39x to 31x.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 32:54
Software value names see PER compression.
Software names such as Palantir, ServiceNow, and Palo Alto Networks fit the value framework because investment-driven revenue and earnings growth should sharply lower their forward P/E multiples.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 33:17
Financial value names on fintech growth.
U.S. banks and diversified financials have high earnings growth aided by fintech adoption; Citigroup, Mastercard, and Robinhood are cited as value candidates whose multiples can fall sharply.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 34:43
Micron value via PER fall.
Among U.S. semiconductors, Micron and NVIDIA are expected to show the largest P/E compression, making Micron a value-style candidate within the semiconductor sector.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 36:15
Won strength favors Korean import-cost beneficiaries.
The speaker expects USD/KRW to fall rather than break above 1,500 as government intervention and medium-term dollar weakness support the won; won strength lowers import costs and improves margins for Korean healthcare, utilities, semiconductors, chemicals, shipbuilding, display, banks, and staples.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 39:30
Samsung Electronics is Korean value pick.
Samsung Electronics is a top Korean value candidate: P/E was around 20x last year and should fall further on 2026 earnings, offering significant multiple-compression appeal.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 39:55
Samsung Biologics fits Korean value screen.
Samsung Biologics is included among Korean value candidates in pharma/bio, where earnings growth and multiple compression fit the same value screen.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 40:03
Shipbuilding/defense remain Korean value picks.
Korean shipbuilding and defense remain favorably positioned; HD Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hanwha Aerospace are cited as Korean value candidates with strong earnings/multiple appeal.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 40:10
Korea Investment Holdings is low-P/E value.
Korea Investment Holdings, in securities/financial holdings, trades at about 5x P/E and fits the traditional undervalued value concept; it can play a value role in Korean portfolios.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 40:34
S-Oil fits Korean value screen.
S-Oil is named as a Korean energy value candidate that fits the screen of rising earnings and falling P/E.
Lee Jaeman Head of Global Investment Analysis, Hana Securities Research Center 40:37
LS fits Korean value screen.
LS is named as a Korean machinery value candidate fitting the same earnings-growth and P/E-compression screen.
Up Next

This 3PRO TV (삼프로TV) video, published January 04, 2026, features Lee Jaeman discussing SMH, UUP, CHIQ, AI-SECTOR, IGV, XLC, XRT, IYT, U.S. auto parts, MAGS, Korean exporters, VTV, Korean energy machinery, Korean auto parts, KARS, Korean IT hardware, Korean energy, Korean machinery, Korean securities, Korean chemicals, Korean healthcare, Korean utilities, Korean Semiconductors, Korean Shipbuilding, Korean display, Korean staples, Korean banks, SPY, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, LLY, BSX, XLV, GEV, NFLX, PLTR, NOW, PANW, C, MA, HOOD, XLF, MU, USD/KRW, 005930.KS, 207940.KS, 329180.KS, 012450.KS, 071050.KS, Korean securities sector, 010950.KS, LS. 26 trade ideas extracted by AI with direction and confidence scoring.

Speakers: Lee Jaeman  · Tickers: SMH, UUP, CHIQ, AI-SECTOR, IGV, XLC, XRT, IYT, U.S. auto parts, MAGS, Korean exporters, VTV, Korean energy machinery, Korean auto parts, KARS, Korean IT hardware, Korean energy, Korean machinery, Korean securities, Korean chemicals, Korean healthcare, Korean utilities, Korean Semiconductors, Korean Shipbuilding, Korean display, Korean staples, Korean banks, SPY, NVDA, MSFT, TSLA, LLY, BSX, XLV, GEV, NFLX, PLTR, NOW, PANW, C, MA, HOOD, XLF, MU, USD/KRW, 005930.KS, 207940.KS, 329180.KS, 012450.KS, 071050.KS, Korean securities sector, 010950.KS, LS